Research On The Influence Of Urban Residents’ Income Gap On Housing Price In China

Since the reform and opening up,while China’s economic development has entered a "fast lane",people’s incomes have risen significantly.However,the gap between people’s incomes is widening,and the Gini coefficient of people’s incomes released by State Statistics Bureau has been above the international warning line.At the same time,the real estate industry was developing very fast,and the housing price has been rising.Especially,the high housing price in the central cities has become the focus of people’s attention.On the whole,the widening income gap of residents and the continuous rise of housing price are almost synchronous,which has attracted the attention of all sectors of society.However,the systematic studies on the inner link and the impact mechanism between the two are rare.Therefore this dissertation systematically studies the impact effect and the impact mechanism of the widening income gap of residents on housing prices,so as to correctly understand the inner link between residents’ income gap and housing price,and to explore the logic and deep-seated reasons for the rise of housing price from the perspective of residents’ income gap.This research will provide theoretical basis and policy suggestions for implementing the orientation of "houses are for living,not for speculation" proposed at the 19 th national congress of the CPC,and perfecting a long-term effective mechanism for the sound development of the real estate market.This dissertation is divided into seven chapters following the logical main line:“literature analysis→status quo analysis→theoretical analysis→empirical analysis→ conclusion and suggestion”on the impact of urban residents’ income gap on housing price.The first chapter mainly expounds the objectives,significance,contents,technology roadmap,innovations and limitations.The second chapter reviews related literature of income gap、 housing price influencing factors、the impact of income gap on housing price,and related theories、methods.The third chapter analyzes the status quo and correlation of the urban residents’ income gap and housing price in China.The fourth chapter carries out a comprehensive analysis on the impact mechanism of the widening residents’ income gap on housing price.First,it analyzes the impact mechanism which the widening residents’ income gap affects housing price through the channels of social total savings rate and housing demand behavior.Second,it analyzes the impact of housing price rise expectation、housing purchase restriction policy and other factors on that the widening residents’ income gap affects the housing price.Third,based on the residents’ leverage ratio,it analyzes the magnifying effect of widening residents’ income gap on housing price.The fifth chapter uses the panel data of 38 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2004 to 2015,and establishes the fixed effect panel data model to empirically test the impact mechanism of residents’ income gap on housing price and its regional differences on the national and regional levels.Further,this chapter investigates the impact of housing price expectation,purchase restriction policy and other factors on this mechanism.The sixth chapter uses the time series data from 1990 to 2017 to empirically investigate the impact of widening residents’ income gap on credit fund supply and real estate loan scale.And then uses the time series data from the first quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2017,and establishes the VAR model to empirically investigate the interaction between residents’ house purchase loan、residents’ leverage rate and housing price.In order to test the impact of widening income gap on the housing market,it drives the increase of residents’ leverage rate,which realizes and amplifies the housing purchase demand,and further interacts with the housing price increase cycle,thus producing the amplification effect of the impact of residents’ income gap on housing price.The last chapter is conclusion and suggestion.Research findings: First,in general,the widening gap in residents’ income significantly increasing the rise of housing prices when other factors remain unchanged.Second,the expectation of housing price increase significantly pushes up the housing price.The higher the expectation of housing price increase,the greater the income gap of residents will play a stronger role in promoting the housing price increase.Third,the effect of housing purchase restriction policy is limited.In practice,the purchase restriction policy has not completely suppressed the housing investment(speculation)demand of the high-income group and thus restrained the housing price rise.On the contrary,the purchase restriction policy also strengthened the effect of widening residents’ income gap on housing price and promoted the housing price rise.Fourth,there were regional differences in the impact of residents’ income gap on housing prices in cities with different levels of development.In cities with low level of economic development,the widening residents’ income gap significantly promotes the rise of housing price.However,this effect is not significant in cities with high economic development level.Fifth,the widening gap between residents’ incomes leads to the expansion of social loanable funds and the increase of residents’ demand for house purchase,which leads to the increase of residents’ leverage rate.Further,household leverage rate and housing price rise push each other circularly,and rise in a spiral,which amplifies the impact of widening residents’ income gap on housing price and intensifies the risk of housing price bubble.The innovations and contributions of this dissertation:First,the topic selection is novel and it enriches and expands the related research.The problems of income inequality and high housing price are the focus of attention from all walks of life,However,there are few studies on the impact of income gap on housing price.This research brought the two hot issues into one research framework and explored the logic and deep-seated reasons for housing price rise from the perspective of residents’ income gap,which not only enriches the research on influencing factors of housing price but also expands the research on the economic and social consequences of income gap.Second,this dissertation comprehensively clarifies impact mechanism of the widening residents’ income gap on housing price,which enriches the theoretical research in this field and provides reference for the government to effectively regulate the housing market.There are few studies on the mechanism of the effect of income gap on housing price,and no consistent conclusions have been reached so far.This dissertation summarized two channels in which the widening income gap affects the housing price,and analyzed its mechanism.At the same time,it analyzed the impact of housing price rise expectation,housing purchase restriction policy on this mechanism,as well as the regional differences in this mechanism,which is systematic,comprehensive and innovative.Third,it innovatively studied the amplifying effect of widening residents’ income gap on housing price,which promotes the research in this field.Existing studies have failed to consider the fact that the process of the widening residents’ income gap affecting housing market also affected the leverage ratio of residents.Based on the phenomenon that the increase in residents’ leverage ratio,this dissertation discussed the household leverage rate has been pushed up in the process in which the widening of residents’ income gap promotes the increase of housing price,and then the increase of the leverage ratio of residents and the increase of housing price push each other,thus amplifying the impact of the widening of residents’ income gap on the increase of housing price.This extension is innovative,and pushes the research in this field forward.Furthermore,the time series of empirical data is newer and longer,and the data used is city-level data instead of provincial data,so that the provincial can’t conceal the inner-provincial differences,making the results more reliable.