| In China,the revenue from the sale of state-owned land is an important part of the budget revenue of government funds and an important source of local government fiscal revenue.The income from the transfer of state-owned land has a positive impact on China’s urbanization construction and sustainable economic and social development.The rapid growth of stateowned land transfer revenue has made significant contributions to the economy and finance,but it is accompanied by an increase in residents’ leverage ratio.In December 2020,China’s resident leverage ratio of 61.9% has reached 57.5% of the threshold of resident leverage ratio studied by Ke Chao and other scholars.According to his research,exceeding this threshold will inhibit further economic growth.In addition,it will also reach the threshold of 65% surveyed by the International Monetary Fund.Therefore,based on this issue,this article starts from the perspective of the impact of state-owned land transfer prices on residents’ leverage ratio,studies the "residents’ debt" attribute of state-owned land transfer income,analyzes the debt pressure it brings to the residential sector,and thus better understands and grasps the choice of fiscal and economic policies.Based on land property rights theory,cost driven theory,credit cycle theory and other relevant theories,this paper summarizes the mechanism of the impact of state-owned land transfer income on residents’ debt,including the leverage ratio ratio of individual consumer loans and leverage ratio ratio of individual business loans.The ability to obtain state-owned land transfer income is measured by the transfer price of state-owned land in each province and city.The research object is the balanced panel data of 29 provinces in China from 2014 to 2021,The two-way fixed effect model is constructed to test the relationship between the state-owned land transfer price and the residents’ leverage ratio ratio,and the reliability of the results is verified through endogenous treatment and other methods.Finally,the heterogeneity test and mesomeric effect test are conducted to enrich the research content of the article.The research in this article has certain significance from both theoretical and practical perspectives.Firstly,existing literature in China mainly studies the impact of state-owned land transfer prices from macro and micro perspectives,but there is a lack of relevant research on the impact of state-owned land transfer prices on residents’ debt levels;In terms of research on residents’ leverage ratio,existing literature mostly focuses on the impact of economic and financial development level,household income,and consumption level on residents’ leverage ratio,and there is also little research on the impact of land market and state-owned land transfer prices on it.Secondly,on the research mechanism,this paper logically infers the intermediary influence mechanism of the transfer price of state-owned land on the leverage ratio of residents,that is,the Mesomeric effect of the price of residential commercial housing,and makes a reasonable assessment of it.The upper limit of the leverage ratio of residents is an important influencing factor that the state-owned land transfer income cannot continue to rely on.The conclusion of this article is as follows: Firstly,the transfer price of state-owned land has a significant promoting effect on the increase of residents’ leverage ratio.The transfer price of state-owned land has a positive impact on the leverage ratio of personal consumption loans and personal business loans for residents,and its promoting effect on the leverage ratio of personal consumption loans for residents is higher than that of personal business loans for residents.Secondly,there is regional heterogeneity in the impact of state-owned land transfer prices on residents’ leverage ratio.The promotion effect of state-owned land transfer prices on residents’ leverage ratio in the eastern and central regions is significantly higher than that in the western regions.Third,about 79% of the positive impact of the transfer price of state-owned land on the leverage ratio of residents is achieved through the Mesomeric effect through the price of residential commercial housing.At the end of the article,relevant suggestions are put forward from the perspectives of gradually reducing dependence on the income from stateowned land transfer,adhering to the policy of "housing,housing,and non speculation",reasonably utilizing "leverage",and supporting new consumption hotspots for credit diversion. |
