Research On The Impact Of Purchase Restriction Policy On Housing Price Based On DID Model

Since the reform of China’s housing system in 1998,the real estate industry has gradually entered the stage of commercialization and prosperity.As a popular industry,real estate has made momentous contributions to the development of China’s national economy.However,in recent years,with the sustained and rapid growth of housing price,it has brought great risks and challenges while causing the real estate bubble.The high house price has far exceeded the affordable range of ordinary buyers,but also made rigid demand people away.In order to realize the stability of real estate market,since 2003,the state has issued a series of macro-control policies for the problems of high housing prices and rapid growth,among which the housing purchase restriction policy is the most stringent.The purchase restriction policy was introduced in 46 large and medium-sized cities in China in April 2010,but was cancelled in2014,but the country restarted the purchase restriction in 2016 as housing prices rebounded with a vengeance.Whether the purchase restriction policy can effectively reduce housing price growth has always been the focus of experts and scholars at home and abroad.Against this background,this article conducts in-depth research on the effectiveness of purchase restriction policy from the perspective of theoretical analysis and positive analysis.First of all,this paper concludes relevant research status at home and abroad,and then summarizes and introduces related theories such as purchase restriction policy,commodity housing price,supply and demand relationship theory,market failure theory,government intervention theory and ripple--spillover effect.Qualitatively speaking,based on the theory of supply and demand and the four-quadrant model,this paper analyzes the theoretical mechanism of the effect of purchase restriction policy on the price of commercial housing,and puts forward the relevant research assumptions of this paper.After that,taking the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration as an example,this paper selects 132 sample data from January 2009 to December 2019,and uses the difference difference method(DID)to investigate the impact of purchase restriction policy on commercial housing price in sample cities from a quantitative perspective.While fully considering the restrictions for different level of cities and a building area of commodity housing price as well as the influence of heterogeneous policy of timeliness and spatial spillover effect,finally using PSM-DID the inspection,the facts and eliminate other inspection methods of monetary policy effects on the restrictions on the robustness check,and proves that the robustness of the results.The results of positive analysis are as follows :(1)the implementation of purchase restriction policy will inhibit the rapid rise of commodity housing price on the whole;(2)The effect of purchase restriction policy on the price of commercial housing is obviously different in different city levels,and the restraining effect on the price rise of commercial housing in first-tier and new first-tier developed cities is better than that in second and third-tier cities;(3)There are differences in the impact of purchase restriction policies on the price of commercial housing with different building areas.The policy has a better effect on inhibiting the price rise of medium-sized housing with 90-144 square meters,while the policy has no obvious effect on small housing with less than 90 square meters,and even drives the price increase of large housing with more than 144 square meters;(4)The restraining effect of purchase restriction policy on the price of commercial housing is more effective in the short term,and its restraining effect on the price growth of commercial housing will be weaker and weaker as time goes by;(5)The implementation effect of the purchase restriction policy has a spatial spillover effect.The introduction of the policy will not only restrain the rapid growth of housing prices in this region,but also restrain the growth of housing prices in neighboring cities.Through the empirical results,this paper draws the following policy recommendations:(1)The introduction of the purchase restriction policy needs to follow the guiding ideology of implementing policies according to the city and classification.First-tier and new first-tier cities should be strictly supervised to promote the implementation of policies.For second and third-tier cities,policies should be loosened;(2)To establish a long-term mechanism for the healthy development of the housing market and speed up the reform of the housing system to fundamentally solve the shortage of China’s housing market;(3)Jointly restrict business,sale,loan and price to control the real estate market.