Research On The Influence Of Purchase Restriction Policy On Housing Price

In recent years,the housing market has closely followed the pace of economic development and entered a stage of accelerated development.Housing is no longer simply used for living,and its investment properties are becoming more and more prominent.In recent years,the housing market has closely followed the pace of economic development and entered a stage of accelerated development.Housing is no longer simply used for living,and its investment properties are becoming more and more prominent.The phenomenon of real estate speculation began to appear frequently,and the phenomenon of irrational growth of housing prices followed.In the "14th Five-Year Plan",the national government once again emphasized the positioning of "houses are for living in,not for speculation",and the housing issue has always been the focus of the country’s continuous attention.On the one hand,the rapid rise of housing prices has greatly increased people’s enthusiasm for buying houses;on the other hand,the irrational investment of residents has also contributed to the formation of the real estate bubble.In order to prevent financial risks and curb rising housing prices,the central government has adopted administrative measures to force intervention.The most representative means is the implementation of the purchase restriction policy,through which the housing prices return to a stable state.The purchase restriction policy has been implemented since 2010 and has gone through three stages: first introduction,relaxation and restart.This thesis studies the restart stage when the implementation of the purchase restriction policy is stronger and the restrictions are more stringent.This thesis firstly sorts out the relevant theories of the purchase restriction policy and the housing market,and introduces the characteristics of housing and the dual attributes of housing and investment;then,it introduces the housing market failure theory and disequilibrium theory,as well as the control measures of the housing market,and analyzes the influence mechanism of the purchase restriction policy on the housing price;finally,it analyzes the purchase restriction policy and the current situation of the housing market,introduces the evolution process of the purchase restriction policy "introduction-relaxation-restart",the restriction conditions of the purchase restriction policy,and analyzes the real estate development and investment from the real estate development and investment.The current situation of the housing market is analyzed by selecting appropriate indicators from three aspects: the situation,residents’ living consumption,and the economic development of the real estate industry.This thesis uses the urban panel data of 70 large and medium-sized cities from January2016 to December 2019 to construct a multi-phase DID model to study the policy effect of purchase restrictions on housing prices,and conduct robustness tests through placebo testing and model replacement.All show that the conclusions have strong reliability.Further,this thesis constructs a PVAR model to compare and analyze the effectiveness and timeliness of the differences in the content of purchase restriction policies on housing prices in 32 purchase restriction cities through impulse response,and puts forward practical suggestions based on the empirical results.Through empirical research,it is found that:(1)The implementation of the purchase restriction policy will inhibit the rise of house prices in the short term,but the long-term inhibitory effect is not significant.(2)From the point of view of the purchase restriction content setting,the purchase restriction is imposed on the whole area of the city,the purchase restriction is imposed on the residents with local housing,the second-hand housing purchase restriction is implemented,the household registered residents in the city are subject to the purchase restriction,and the non-residents who have proof of social security payment or tax payment are subject to the purchase restriction.The implementation of purchase restrictions by residents in this city has played a certain role in restraining the rapid rise in housing prices.Among them,the restriction on housing purchases in the whole city has a significant effect on restraining the rise in housing prices,while the restrictions on housing prices for non-city residents who have proof of social security payment or tax payment are relatively weak in restraining housing prices.At the same time,restrictions on the purchase of second-hand houses,restrictions on the purchase of residents with local housing,and restrictions on the number of households with registered permanent residence in the city have suppressed the growth rate of house prices and also temporarily promoted the growth of housing prices,with obvious fluctuations.According to the above conclusions,in order to better play the role of the purchase restriction policy in the regulation of housing prices,the following suggestions are put forward:(1)Strengthen the supervision of the purchase restriction policy and improve the detailed rules of the purchase restriction policy.It is recommended that the government further strengthen the supervision and evaluation of the implementation of the purchase restriction policy,and encourage cities that have implemented purchase restrictions to expand the purchase restriction areas;appropriately increase the purchase restrictions on second-hand houses,and include new and old houses in the purchase restriction scope;at the same time,increase the number of years for social security payment or tax payment certificates;according to the urban housing situation and changes in the number of permanent residents,carefully choose whether to restrict the purchase of houses by households in this city,and promptly correct and improve the problems that arise in the implementation and implementation of the purchase restriction policy.(2)Pay attention to the effective adjustment of housing price expectations,restrain investment and ensure rigid demand.The implementation of the purchase restriction policy requires attention to changes in housing prices,and government agencies must take residents’ expectations into account when regulating housing prices.(3)Promote real estate tax reform and establish a sustainable development mechanism for the housing market.While the purchase restriction policy is implemented,tax reform will be promoted from the perspective of supply side,and the property tax rate will be raised for investors who are not in rigid demand,so as to protect residents in rigid demand and restrain investment behaviors of non-rigid demand.