Research On The Impact Of Purchase Restriction Policy On Commodity Housing Price In Hefei City

Since 2014,due to the influence of the domestic and international economic environment,China's GDP has ended its economic growth rate of more than 30 years in double digits,and economic development has gradually entered a new normal.At the same time,under the pressure of rising stocks in real estate,the market is getting colder and the differentiation between cities is intensifying.Some non-first-tier cities have withdrawn from the purchase restriction policy.However,under the continually loose monetary policy and regulation policy,in 2016,the price of land prices and land prices in China's hotspots in first-and second-tier cities continued to increase.In order to stabilize the stable and healthy development of the real estate market,many housing hotspot cities launched their own purchase restriction policies around the 11 th of 2016.A new round of purchase restriction policy has come back.In addition to the purchase restriction,the supply and regulation of land and new houses will be increased.Various measures,such as the pre-sale system of commercial housing,the rectification of illegal developers and intermediaries,regulate the real estate market.In this paper,taking Hefei City as an example,firstly,the background of the purchase restriction is expounded,and then the HP filter method is used to obtain the long-term operation trend of the commodity housing market.By observing the deviation of the actual running trend of the transaction price and the volume from the long-term trend,the effect of the purchase restriction is obtained.Secondly,establish a VAR model to analyze the changes in the volume-price relationship before and after the implementation of the purchase restriction,and determine whether the purchase-restriction policy is effective.Then the impulse response function is established to judge the persistence and influence degree of the purchase restriction policy by tracking the positive impact effect of one unit standard deviation of the volume in the VAR model.In addition,housing prices are also affected by many other factors.Based on the descriptive analysis of Hefei's commodity housing market and reading a large number of predecessors' literatures,the impact of many variables including purchase restrictions on housing prices is obtained.Then,the virtual variables were purchased and the multivariate linear regression equation was established by stepwise regression.Finally,the conclusion was drawn and the long-term effect of the purchase restriction was verified.The empirical results show that there is a price-price interaction mechanism inthe commodity housing market in Hefei,and the effect of purchasing restrictions is obvious in the short term.It also needs a long-term mechanism to strengthen.In addition,Hefei housing prices are also affected by variables such as gross national product,actual bank loan interest rates,and land prices.Stabilizing housing prices also requires a variety of safeguards.Finally,it puts forward policy recommendations to explore how housing regulation policies can maintain the stability of housing prices and promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate market under the new situation.