A Study On Trade Development And Economic Effects Among China And Countries Along The Belt And Road

On the basis of combing the background,significance and existing researches of the Belt and Road strategy,the dissertation summarizes the relevant international trade theories which are in line with the characteristics of trade development among China and countries along the Belt and Road.While summarizing the trade institutional arrangements,we also statistically analyze the bilateral trade development among China and countries along the Belt and Road.The dissertation finds that China’s export to the countries along the Belt and Road is always bigger than exports from countries along the Belt and Road to China,the existence of the trade surplus situation is continuing,and the trade surplus to some countries along the Belt and Road are huge.The trade activities among China and countries along the Belt and Road are usually concentrated in neighboring countries,such as Southeast Asia,India and Russia.Bilateral trade among China and other countries along the Belt and Road are too low,and the scope of trade radiation is narrow.By using the multiple regression models,this dissertation makes an empirical analysis of the various types of trade agreements and trade development relations.It is found that the signing free trade agreements can promote bilateral trade activities among China and other countries along the Belt and Road.After signing trade agreements,China’s imports from countries along the Belt and Road are higher than China’s exports to countries along the Belt and Road.Bilateral trade agreements and multilateral trade agreements both can promote the trade development among China and other countries along the Belt and Road.However,the regression results show that the promotion effects made by multilateral trade agreements are higher than the bilateral trade agreements.In this dissertation,we do the robustness test to verify above conclusions by using the data from national level,the commodity level and the industry level.The results show that the conclusions are effective and robust with the change of the sample sizes and variables.In addition,by using GTAP database and computable general equilibrium model,we also simulate and estimate the economic effects among China and other countries along the Belt and Road.As to the scenarios setting,we not only take into account the existing trade relations and economic effects among China and other countries along the Belt and Road,but also take into account the fact that maybe more economies join the Belt and Road in the future.Beside,we analyze the economic effects of the Belt and Road from the perspective of national level and specific route setting.Totally,relevant variables and simulation data is highly accurate,which can mostly reflect the trade characteristics of China and countries along the Belt and Road,and can accurately estimate and analyze the economic effects at the macro and industry level in the future.The simulation and calculation results show that the participated entities of the Belt and Road need to take fully preparation for the trade relations and adjust trade policies in time and put forward scientific and effective strategies.To some extent,the Belt and Road strategy do promote China’s exports in overcapacity industries;boost capacity cooperation among China and relevant countries.At the industry level,the simulation results show that China and countries along the Belt and Road need to strengthen development in their own advantages industries,to broaden bilateral trade growth points,and to further tap the new industry development space,encourage and support potential industry development in the future.Finally,in the situation of China’s huge trade surplus,the dissertation proposes specific policy recommendations of trade development among China and countries along the Belt and Road,as to how to achieve a balanced development of bilateral trade,how to let countries along the Belt and Road gain more trade benefits,how to encourage more countries to actively participate in the Belt and Road strategy.