Research On Key Generic Technology Identification And Foresight Based On Patent Data Mining

In the face of an international environment that is guided by technological protection,it is an important strategic choice to get rid of technological dependence and comprehensively improve China 's technological strength.Limited by innovative resources,it is very necessary to focus on dominant attribute to develop key generic technologies.The key generic technology is the most important and core part of the technology composition.The development of key generic technology can guarantee national industrial security,promote the development of innovative clusters,guide the selection of strategic emerging industry technologies,realize national-level technological foresight and drive multi-industry collaboration upgrade.The key generic technology has the property of quasi-public goods,and inevitably there are problems such as the lack of main body of key generic technology supply and free-riding,which leads to the insufficient supply of key generic technology and hinders the road of technological innovation from catching up to beyond.Therefore,it is an important research topic to identify key generic technologies through scientific means,predict the future trends of key generic technologies,and put forward countermeasures and suggestions for developing key generic technologies in a targeted manner.This study first introduces the concepts,connotations and characteristics of key generic technology concepts,based on combing and summarizing relevant research results at home and abroad;it expounds the theory of key generic technology through patent measurement theory,co-occurrence theory and technology life cycle theory Background;based on domestic and international research trends,a research framework for the identification and prediction of key generic technologies was constructed,and the overall logical thinking of this research was analyzed based on the research framework.Secondly,based on the research framework of the key generic identification and prediction proposed by this research,the data collection ideas were designed,the research selected patent data as the source of technical information,and took 3D printing technology as an example to construct a patent search expression to obtain 3D Printing related patent data,after patent text preprocessing and latent Dirichlet distribution(LDA)model clustering,obtained 3D printing technology topic category information and time trends.Thirdly,the evolution mechanism of the technology theme is discussed from the three aspects of dynamic factors,micro basis and macro performance,and the evolution hypothesis is verified through the analysis of evolutionary game simulation;based on these assumptions,the confusion relationship and transfer relationship of 3D printing related technology topics are obtained.It provides an analytical basis for the identification of key generic technologies.Next,based on the co-occurrence theory and the Hidden Markov Model(HMM),a recognition framework for key generic technologies was constructed.The Viterbi algorithm was used to recognize the terminology in the patent literature.By digitizing the generic features of the technical topics,it was used as the degree of genericness.Measurement,the criticality of the technology subject node in the technology evolution transfer network is regarded as the keyness of the technology,and the Page Rank algorithm is used to measure the keyness of the technology subject.Apply this framework to obtain the key measurement and genericness measurement of 3D printing technology,and then identify the key genericness technologies in the field of 3D printing technology;in order to verify the accuracy of the recognition framework,the recognition results are compared with the "Industrial Key Generic Technology Development Guide(2017)",and the comparison shows that the recognition results are highly relevant.Subsequently,combined with the LDA theme model and HMM model,the 3D printing technology theme R & D trend and the 3D printing technology theme R & D structure are predicted,and the key generic technology composition in the future 3D printing technology field is predicted from the short-term,medium-term and long-term perspectives;gray prediction,IPC Classification number clustering method is used as a comparison to verify the accuracy of the prediction results,and the prediction accuracy is better than the comparison method;repeated experiments after randomly excluding the original data verify the robustness of the method.Finally,the countermeasures and suggestions for promoting the development of key generic technologies in China are put forward from the perspective of the national level and the enterprise level,including the establishment of an institutional system to promote the development of key generic technologies,the improvement of supporting services for the research and development of key generic technologies,the establishment of government enterprises and non-profit organizations cooperation mechanism,etc.,emphasizing the importance of national support,specialization of intermediary services,technology sharing,and technological innovation strategic layout;on this basis,targeted suggestions are made to accelerate the rapid development of key generic technologies for 3D printing in China.The results show that the key generic technology identification and prediction framework proposed by this research has good overall effect,high recognition accuracy,accurate prediction results and high stability.Among the 3D printing key generic technology identification cases,a total of 31 technical topics were obtained.Among them,the base,noise reduction and vibration reduction and nozzle technology are the current research and development hot spots,laser powder molding technology,recyclable technology,color printing technology,print head technology,denture printing technology,cooling and heat dissipation technology during printing,base technology and resin light curing technology are key generic technologies in the field of 3D printing;future research on technical topics such as nozzles and operating platforms will gradually weaken,while laser focusing,print heads,color printing,and technical topics such as circulation,material feeding,control and dentures will become the focus of research and development in the next few years,and are an important direction of research and development worth investing in research and development.