| In 2016 China’s economic growth speed smoothly,reduce the fluctuation margin,annual economic growth rate at about 6.7%,down 0.2% from the previous year,this is China’s economic growth for five consecutive years under 9%,an economic growth rate from high speed into the economic development motive force of high speed,driven by resource to innovative drive,along with the economic structure optimization and upgrading of the economic characteristics of the new normal,and the economic structure is the core content of optimization and upgrading of industrial structure upgrade.Rich resources and cheap labor have supported China’s three largest industry sustained,rapid development,to promote China as the world’s manufacturing power.However,with the rapid change of population structure and the aging of the population,Labour supply in China is undergoing profound changes,outstanding performance in: labor supply negative growth,and continue;Labor supply and demand is from the early "unlimited supplies" evolution of rural surplus labor to the current regional,structural "labor shortage",as the dual economic transformation in the process of the arrival of lewis turning point interval,rising labor costs in China,the change of factor endowments,a country’s or region’s industrial structure is decided by the relative price factor endowment and elements,the optimum industrial structure shall be coordinated and the optimal factor endowments.The current China’s industrial structure is unreasonable,the industrial structure change lag behind the change of factor endowments,main show is: on the one hand,on the labor supply curve downward,labor element under the condition of increasingly scarce,labor-intensive industries account for a high proportion,the demand for labor,lead to the gap between supply and demand in the low-end labor is more and more big,increased enterprise’s recruitment difficulty,leading to a growing problem of "shortage of migrant workers",and further accelerate the speed of the low labor costs rise,make the enterprise profit decline,even indebtedness;Relative to China,on the other hand,technology innovation ability is more and more strong,high-end Labour supply increases gradually,capital-intensive industries and technology intensive industry development is still slow,lead to high-end gap between Labour and capital supply and demand is more and more big,the domestic large capital to slam shut,unfavorable to create new competitive advantages to attract international investment,accelerate the domestic capital flight,can’t provide,high-end talent in the right jobs,leading to a growing problem of college students "employment",high-end talent the wages were low,there are even degree is higher,the employment of the more difficult it is to blame.In addition,as the change of the economic situation at home and abroad,China is facing huge pressure to upgrade industrial structure,and developed countries represented by the United States put forward the strategy of "industrialization";The elements of some southeast Asian countries at a lower price plunder the low-end market,manufacturing industry in China in labor-intensive industry and capital-intensive industry development situation by the lack of external demand.Combined with China’s demographic dividend disappears,human capital investment is insufficient,the traditional labor cost advantage is gradually reduced,a large number of foreign direct investment from domestic market withdrawal,turned to foreign markets.Therefore,China must make full use of the current labor costs rise this favorable opportunity,vigorously promote the upgrading of industrial structure,promote the sustainable and healthy economic development in China.But so far,rising labor costs to upgrade industrial structure is still a weak link of academic research,the influence of the relevant literature is less.Existing research is focused on some aspect to discuss rising Labour costs influence on industrial structure upgrade,comprehensive and in-depth research on the industrial structure upgrade rising labor costs,the influence mechanism research achievements of the author is not retrieved,and about China’s rising Labour costs impact on the upgrading of industrial structure has more empirical research is limited to the evolution of 1,2,3 times industry,few scholars from the perspective of intensive use of factors of degree study rising Labour costs for labor-intensive industries to capital-intensive industries,and then to technology-intensive industry upgrade.Paper mainly includes the following four parts:First,the theoretical basis part.First,a systematic and objective evaluation of the domestic and foreign scholars about labor costs and the research achievements of industrial structure relations.Second,respectively,of rising Labour costs change consumer demand structure,accelerating technological progress,produce reversed transmission effect of enterprises and promote the human capital investment in three aspects carries on the analysis,rising labor costs will be concluded the influence mechanism of industrial structure upgrade,get a theoretical foundation for the next study.Second,empirical empirical part.First of all,according to the intensive use of factors,the industrial structure of China is divided,and the historical evolution and current situation of industrial structure in China are analyzed and judged,and the conclusion is drawn that the industrial structure upgrade of China lags behind the industrialization development.Secondly,analyze the composition of labor cost in China,and use the Lewis turning point theory and ARMA model in economics to forecast the trend of labor cost change in China,and conclude that the labor cost will be on the rise in the future.This paper analyzes the impact of rising labor cost on industrial structure upgrading,selects industrial structure upgrading,labor cost,human capital investment,urbanization rate,consumption level and technological progress to establish var model,and concludes that labor cost increases can promote the industrial structure upgrading through changing consumption demand structure,accelerating technological progress,increasing human capital investment and accelerating urbanization.Finally,the theoretical analysis shows that the increase of labor cost promotes the upgrading of industrial structure,and in the empirical test,it is concluded that the Chinese industrial structure upgrade is not very ideal on the basis of the inevitable trend of labor cost rising in China,in-depth analysis of the industrial structure upgrade lag and the reasons under the condition of labor cost rising,prepare for the next step.Third,the international comparison.Select the United States,Japan and South Korea three representative countries,through the analysis of the three countries to speed up technological progress to solve the rising labor costs the enterprise less competitive,and by increasing the human capital investment and promoting the urbanization development to solve the structural unemployment problem brought by the upgrading of industrial structure and labor transfer and resettlement problems,and on this basis,summed up the upgrading of industrial structure is suitable for our country can draw lessons from the experience.Fourth,the policy Suggestions.Mainly aimed at the second part puts forward the upgrading of industrial structure of lag problem and its reason,choose the United States,Japan and South Korea three representative countries,through the analysis of the three countries to speed up technological progress to solve the rising labor costs the enterprise less competitive,and by increasing the human capital investment and urbanization development to solve the unemployment brought by the upgrading of industrial structure and labor transfer and resettlement problems,on the basis of summarized through technological progress,expanding consumption,increase human capital investment and promote the upgrading of industrial structure to realize our country urbanization development. |
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