The Study Of The Elderly Services Supply And Demand In China Upon The Perspective Of Medical And Pension Combined

Aged tendency of population is an inevitable trend in the social development.It is also one of the social problems commonly faced by all countries in the world today.Since entering the aging society in 1999,China has gone through 18 years.According to the 2016 Statistical Gazette,by the end of 2016,the total population of mainland China was 1,382.71 million,of whom 230.86 million were over the age of 60,reaching 16.7% of the total population.The pyramid of population in our country has shown a clear bell type and is gradually moving towards the end of the demographic dividend.The rapid aging in China is accompanied by old aging which caused by increase of life expectancy,disability caused by higher prevalence of chronic diseases and empty nesting trend caused by a declining family size.Demands of life care,medical rehabilitation and other services among the elderly keep growing.The elderly services combined with health care is urgent to develop.President Xi Jinping made it clear explicitly at the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party that,the implementation of the strategy for a healthy China is the development priority.Therefore,based on the elderly service as the research object,upon the perspective of medical and pension combined.Firstly,the evolution process of domestic and foreign pension service is analyzed.The development of elderly service in human society and the development of medical care in China are reviewed.Since the founding of new China,China has experienced four stages of development of pension services.There are three time nodes which are respectively after the reform and opening up in 1978,stepped into an aging society in 1999 and entered a well-off society in an all-round way in the critical period in 2012.Medical and pension combined services appeared in the fourth stage of embryonic development and received national attention and support.From pension services international vision of the development,the author deeply analysis of the UK,US and Japan pension service development,which contain course,content and characteristics.British community endowment service,American institution endowment service industry and the endowment,Japan's financial services industry interface are all have significance to the development of pension services in China.Secondly,two chapters are analyzed for the needs of pension service.The fourth chapter using the macro data to do the description analysis of background and demand characteristics of pension services development in China.Then analysis the potential demand of an ageing population and pension service volume.Then followed with trend prediction,based on the analysis of the health condition in China,the author got the elderly overall health condition and part health conditions depend on age,region and hierarchical.According to the analysis of the family structure change and the analysis of the present status of empty nest elderly,the conclusion of weakening function of family elderly service has been drawn.As the ability to pay is one of the conditions of demand for potential transfer to reality,the author uses the least square method to five slices per capita living consumption expenditure of regression.Finally the author concludes the residents' demand for health care and services is elastic.The fifth chapter is mainly about descriptive analysis on the influence factors of pension service demand and quantitative analysis,which is divided into two parts.In the first part,we can tell from the total sample from binary Logit regression analysis that gender,age,marital status,urban and rural,people who give support factors will affect the demand for elderly services choice.Then respectively heterogeneity analysis by gender,age,marital status.In second part,in order to understand the demand of elderly medical and pension combined service situation better.taking Liaoning province as an example,basing on the local service demand of combination,the author has carried on the investigation and interviews.Empirically by using Logit regression back screening method to pick out factors which will affect the demand of combining services.The factors are gender,age,income,health,etc.Thirdly,the supply analysis of elderly service in China is carried out.First analyzed the present status of pension services,which contain home elderly service,community elderly service,institution elderly service.Although there is growth still shows insufficient.Then using the grey correlation degree to sort influence factors of elderly service labor supply in China.The top three on the number are beds,social workers and the per capita disposable income.That is to say,elderly service of the Labour market is dominated by the change of demand supply.Afterwards,by using the macro data from 1999 to 2016 to calculate elderly service supply and the aging of the population comprehensive index.On the basis of the coordinated development,the two coefficients concludes that our country elderly service supply always lagged behind with the aging of the population development.Finally,on the basis of above analysis,from four respects which are government failure,market failure,labor supply and the medical service supply structural imbalances,to analysis the elderly service supply problems and underlying reasons.Finally,through macro disequilibrium analysis of elderly services,on the basis of quantitative and qualitative analysis,the paper proposes some suggestions to improve the uneven and market segmentation.First of all,the non-equilibrium analysis of pension service is carried out from three levels of total,structure and price respectively.Using the Chinese elderly health and longevity factors survey(CLHLS)in 2011 and 2014 data,through QWB index to measure the Chinese older people's health inequality.By using the health index decomposition,the author calculates the income,living arrangements,marital status and other factors which contribute to health inequalities.Then by using CLHLS2014 data to calculate fully meet,partly meet and not fully unmet needs proportion of elderly disability in urban and rural.The degree of disability,social demographic characteristics(gender,age,marital status,education level,living arrangements),adequate funding and areas between urban and rural can not meet the demand of care in the elderly proportion.The results also show that satisfaction and income in the elderly,the regional economic development level are negatively associated with the degree of disability.Finally combining with qualitative analysis,quantitative macro policy of concrete suggestions are put forward on the supply side.The paper suggest the development of the medical demand oriented to raise in the different levels of service.By considering health heterogeneous,market segmentation should divided by region and income.The elder people who is health,young and living accompanied should integrate medical community to raise the basic coverage.As to the elderly people who is disability,live alone and older age,we should try to decrease the threshold of medical and pension combined institutions.As to the cultivation of the high income,vigor elderly consumer,we should improve product quality and find out the new elderly service way.Based on the qualitative and quantitative research,this paper draws the main conclusions.Firstly,development of the medical and pension combined keep expanding the effective supply of potential pension service demand.Secondly,the reasons for the heterogeneity of the demand of elderly services lie in the difference of influencing factors.Thirdly,the supply ofelderly services lags behind the aging of the population.Fourthly,the disequilibrium of supply and demand in medical and pension combined should consider health inequality.Fifthly,the medical and pension combined service should be segmented according to the heterogeneity of demand.