Spatiotemporal Evolution And Scenario Simulation Of Carbon Emissions From Industrial Land

Greenhouse gas emissions from human activity,particularly carbon dioxide emissions,take primary responsibility for global warming.At present,Anhui province,China is in the stage of rapid industrialization with growing industrial economy;however,due to the considerable consumption of fossil energy,carbon emissions from industrial land have significantly increased—which justifies an urgent need for energy conservation and emission reduction.In this context,we examined the carbon emissions from industrial land in Anhui province.Firstly,the carbon emissions from industrial land in Anhui province and the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of carbon emission efficiency were systematically analyzed;secondly,the influencing factors of carbon emissions from industrial land in Anhui province were examined by mathematical modeling;finally,the carbon emissions from industrial land in Anhui province during the period of 2017-2030 were simulated in different scenarios and then compared.The main research conclusions of the thesis are as follows:(1)The multi-level structure system of province-prefecture-enterprise was established,and the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the carbon emissions from industrial land in Anhui province were analyzed from the perspective of macromeso-micro collaborative exploration.For the temporal characteristics: from a macro perspective,the 2000-2016 period saw a rapid increase and then a decrease in the total amount of carbon emissions from industrial land in Anhui province,emission intensity showed a downward trend;and from the micro-level of enterprises,there was no significant spatial relationship between the number of enterprises and carbon emissions.For the spatial characteristics: the increase in carbon emissions from industrial land in the south-north direction was larger than that in the east-west direction with an expansion mainly in the south-north direction;while the rate of industrial growth in South Anhui was higher than that in North Anhui,the center of carbon emissions moved toward to North Anhui.(2)The EBM-DEA-based three-stage model for the efficiency of carbon emissions from industrial land in Anhui province was constructed from the perspectives of land use,economy,environment,and technical efficiency.We calculated the efficiency of carbon emissions from industrial land in Anhui province and analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of the technical efficiency of carbon emissions from industrial land.Results show that the technical efficiency of carbon emissions from industrial land in Anhui province increased and then decreased over time and that,in terms of spatial distribution,the technical efficiency was high in the south and west and low in the north and east with highest in Central Anhui followed by South Anhui and North Anhui.(3)The extended STIRPAT model based on nine major influencing factors was constructed to reveal the degree of their impact on the carbon emissions from industrial land in Anhui province and their influence mechanism.Results show that five of the driving factors are positively correlated with carbon emissions,which are industrial restructuring,economic growth & people’s consumption level,energy consumption structure,land use structure & efficiency,and FDI investment,sorted by correlation coefficient in descending order.The four factors of regional industrial transfer,regional industrial agglomeration,energy consumption intensity,and economic openness are however negatively correlated with carbon emissions.(4)A simulation framework was constructed based on the system dynamics model and the STIRPAT model to simulate carbon emissions in multiple scenarios.Results show that carbon emissions from industrial land in Anhui province would continue to grow with economic development;that levying high carbon taxes and reducing the supply of industrial land by the government are beneficial to carbon emission reduction;that the extensive economic growth mode,lack of energy consumption,energy structure,and other environmental policies would significantly increase carbon emissions;and that adjusting the structure and quantity of investment would,to some extent,help to control carbon emission increase.There are 69 figures,42 tables,and 347 references in this thesis.