| At the moment when global warming and greenhouse gas emissions have become global problems,China is also facing the problems of shortage of arable land resources,shortage of land reserve resources,and pollution of arable land.Therefore,it is increasingly important and necessary to protect the ecological environment while giving full play to the economic benefits of arable land,and promote the efficient,reasonable and sustainable use of arable land.Based on the concept of green development,this paper fully considers carbon emissions,and explores more real farmland utilization efficiency through unexpected output,which is conducive to coordinating the relationship between farmland production and ecological environment,aiming at achieving a more coordinated and efficient development of farmland production and resource environment.Therefore,this study uses SBM and SD model of system dynamics to scientifically,dynamically and objectively evaluate and analyze the status quo of green utilization of cultivated land in the study area,simulate the development trend of green utilization of cultivated land in the study area,and find out the coordinated development mode of ecology and economy suitable for the use of cultivated land in the region through scenario simulation.This paper takes Northeast China as the research object,and uses the panel data and relevant econometric models of counties and cities in Northeast China from 2010 to 2020 to conduct qualitative and quantitative analysis on the carbon emissions and green utilization efficiency of cultivated land in Northeast China from 2010 to 2020,establish the SD model of system dynamics,and use scenario simulation to predict the future results of different development paths,and explore the optimal cultivated land utilization model,In order to provide a general direction for the future use of cultivated land,so as to promote economic development and reduce resource consumption as much as possible while realizing the green use of cultivated land,and put forward suggestions to improve the green use efficiency of cultivated land.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)From the situation of green utilization efficiency of cultivated land in Northeast China from 2010 to 2020 with and without considering the expected output,it can be seen that from the mean value of green utilization efficiency of cultivated land,the mean value of green utilization efficiency of traditional cultivated land is 0.960.After considering the undesired output indicators,the green utilization efficiency of cultivated land in Northeast China has changed to 0.939,indicating that environmental factors affect the green utilization efficiency of cultivated land to a certain extent.(2)From the annual change of green utilization efficiency of cultivated land from2010 to 2020,the green utilization efficiency of cultivated land with and without expected output is in a fluctuating downward trend,and the overall decline is small.Among them,the average green utilization efficiency of cultivated land in Northeast China dropped from 0.987 in 2010 to 0.946 in 2020 without considering the undesired output.Taking into account the unexpected output,the green utilization efficiency of cultivated land decreased from 0.957 in 2010 to 0.925 in 2020,and the gap between the green utilization efficiency of cultivated land among cities in Northeast China is increasing.(3)Under the conditions of slow population reduction,i.e.a net growth rate of-0.0026,rapid GDP development,i.e.a growth rate of 0.024,and slow expansion of urban construction land,i.e.a urbanization growth rate of 0.027,the economic development maintains a good growth trend,while the average carbon emissions have not significantly increased due to this.The predicted value in 2030 is 6259.93t/hm ~2,6122.03t/hm compared to the starting year ~2 Only 137.9t/hm difference ~2,Therefore,this development model is the most ideal. |
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