Research On The Evolution Mechanism Of Airport Runway Safety Risk

Runway safety is an important part of aviation safety,which is not only the material base of aircraft,but also the first condition of takeoff and landing.It is of great theoretical significance to research the evolution mechanism from the perspective of multi-angle and multi-level,including evolution phases,evolution network,evolution kinetics and evolutionary game.The deeply study of runway confusion,runway excursions and runway incursions would reduce the risks associated with runway operations.It makes the runway in a safe and orderly state and provides a reliable technical support to improve runway safety management.It has important practical significance to ensure aviation safety,reduce the accident rate further,casualties and property losses.Taking the airport runway safety risks as the research object,the key issues of runway risks have been researched from the perspective of evolution mechanism,including the following five aspects.Firstly,on the basis of defining runway safety risks,the concept,characteristics and influencing factors of runway confusion,runway excursion and runway incursion were clarified.The influencing factors of runway safety were analyzed based on grounded theory and interpretative structural modeling,and the conceptual model of airport runway safety risks was proposed combined with these two methods.Secondly,analyzing the coupling mechanism of runway safety risk factors based on system dynamics,human factor subsystem,equipment facility subsystem,objective environment subsystem,management factor subsystem and total system were constructed respectively.The simulation results showed the evolution trend of runway safety risk factors and the policy suggestions were put forward from the aspects of structural regulation and parameter regulation.Thirdly,the topology model and BA scale-free network model of runway safety risk evolution were built.Based on the SIS model of traditional virus infection,the SIS(Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible)model considering connection strength based on subsystem was proposed.Individual behavioral factors,the network structure,the risk density in steady state and the risk propagation velocity were simulated and analyzed.Fourthly,the evolution curve model of airport runway safety risk was put forward based on the influencing factors.The life cycle model of airport runway safety risk evolution was proposed,and the correction model was put forward from the perspective of risk early-warning.The evolution phases could be assessed by the method of degree of closeness or minimum proximity.Fifthly,the three-dimensional evolutionary game model based on the payment function matrix was constructed.Combining the system dynamics with the game theory,the simulation process of the probabilistic mutation in the evolutionary game model and the dynamic process under the dynamic supervision strategy were simulated and analyzed.The main innovations of this dissertation are as follows: Firstly,the system dynamics model of runway risk evolution was constructed,and the policy suggestions were put forward from the aspects of structural regulation and parameter regulation.Secondly,the SIS(Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible)model considering connection strength based on subsystem was proposed and the topology model and BA scale-free network model of runway risk evolution were built.Thirdly,the life cycle assessment model of runway risk evolution was built based on the evolution curve and the correction model of evolution phases was put forward.Fourthly,combining the system dynamics with the game theory,the evolutionary game model of runway safety stakeholders was constructed.