Research On Pre-warning And Strategic Game Of Non-traditional Security Risks Of Maritime Freight Corridors

With the continuous improvement of international globalization,the trade between countries has become an indispensable part of the country’s development.In today’s world,there are about 90%of the international trade goods are transported by maritime logistics.In our country,the government begins to pay more attention to the importance of sea transportation with the proposition and implementation of "One Belt One Road",and maritime freight corridors play decisive roles as the carriers of sea transportation.On the other hand,maritime freight corridors are also the lifelines for cultural and political communication.However,the risk factors of maritime freight corridors are numerous and intertwined,which cause great risks to the security of maritime logistics.With the disappear of traditional risks of maritime freight corridors,the non-traditional risks of maritime freight corridors are paid great attention,but there isn’t a scientific method to analyse and manage the non-traditional risks.In order to analyse the maritime logistics non-traditional risks,this paper make a research on the space division,prewarning and strategic game of the maritime logistics non-traditional risks.Based on the literature review of study on division,pre-warning and strategic game,this paper combines the qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis.The density clustering,decision tree model,Logisitic model and evolutionary game theory are used separately for studying the division,the modeling method of pre-warning and the method of cost management of non-traditional risks.(1)Make a detail analysis on maritime logistics non-traditional risks,and construct a space division model to divide non-traditional risks.(2)Based on the results of space division,a pre-warning model of non-traditional risks considering different risk factors is constructed to make reasonable pre-warnings before the happen.(3)This paper considers the dual influences of naval escort:the influence on the success rate of non-traditional risks and the influence of frequency of non-traditional risks.The engendering mechanism of non-traditional risks model is made by combining Logistic function and evolutionary game to reduce the loss caused by non-traditional risks with a reasonable naval resource.The results show that these methods are feasible and valid.They can provide an effective method of pre-warning,strategic game and solve the problems of maritime logistics non-traditional risks under the background of maritime freight corridors by drawing on the previous experience.