| Ecological compensation is not only a research hotspot in the construction of ecological civilization in China,but also a long-term concern in the theoretical field.However,the linkage between ecological compensation and basin resources and environment is often ignored in theoretical research.The impact of uncertainty of industrial resource consumption and emission intensity on ecological compensation is rarely reported and the theoretical ecological compensation standard is difficult to be adopted in practice.Without considering the ecological compensation factors,the water resources planning of the basin is likely to lead to the lack of efficiency or far away from the optimal state of water resources allocation,unable to achieve the Pareto optimal ecological environment and economic benefits of the whole basin.Therefore,when planning water resources in the basin,we should fully consider the requirements of the upper limit of water resources and the bottom line of environmental quality,maximize the economic benefits of the basin by optimizing the allocation of water resources,determine a reasonable amount of ecological compensation,promote the upstream and downstream governments to reach a consensus in the ecological compensation game,balance the main interests of the upstream and downstream of the basin,and solve the "prisoner's dilemma" of the upstream and downstream horizontal ecological compensation,which can promote the sustainable development of society,economy and environment in the basin.In this study,the Tingjiang(Hanjiang)Basin,the second cross provincial pilot basin of ecological compensation in China,was taken as the research object.From the perspective of ecological compensation,taking into account the level of socio-economic development and ecological environment protection requirements of the basin,the uncertainty of industrial water resource consumption index and pollution discharge intensity,five different hydrological runoff scenarios,and the risk of maximizing the benefits,etc.,the methods of deterministic programming,interval uncertain programming,interval two-stage stochastic programming and interval two-stage robust stochastic programming were adopted successively.Taking themaximization of the economic benefits of the whole basin as the objective function,this paper studied and established the optimal allocation model of water resources in the Tingjiang(Hanjiang)Basin.Under the constraint of the lowest total amount of water resources,total amount control of pollutant discharge and ecological compensation,the model maximized the overall economic benefits of the Tingjiang(Hanjiang)Basin,determined the reasonable amount of ecological compensation for the upstream and downstream,and promoted the ecological compensation work and regional sustainable development of the Tingjiang(Hanjiang)Basin through the optimal allocation of water resources in the upstream,downstream and among all departments.(1)The results of deterministic optimization of water resources allocation in the basin showed that: the total comprehensive economic benefit of Tingjiang(Hanjiang)Basin was 414250 million yuan,which was 33717 million yuan higher than that of380533 million yuan in the benchmark year of 2018,with an increase of 8.86%.The economic benefit of 14 counties and districts in the basin was 4.19% ~ 13.55% higher than 2018.Compared with the basic scheme(the total amount of ecological compensation is 542 million yuan,including 150 million yuan of state subsidy and392 million yuan of Guangdong Province compensation for Fujian Province),the compensation of downstream Guangdong Province for the upstream Fujian Province decreased by 122.7204 million yuan,or 31.31%.It not only reduces the burden of ecological compensation for the lower reaches of the basin,but also improves the comprehensive economic benefits of all counties and regions in the basin.The deterministic model can optimize the allocation of water resources and industrial structure for decision makers,reduce the amount of ecological compensation,and maximize the comprehensive economic benefits of the Tingjiang(Hanjiang)Basin.(2)The results of optimal allocation of water resources based on interval uncertainty planning showed that: the total industrial water use scale and economic benefits are [2577,3556] million tons and [306932,575679]million yuan under the scenario of fluctuation of industrial water consumption and pollutant discharge intensity within a certain range of domain values(i.e.under the scenario of interval uncertainty),respectively.Compared with the deterministic optimization model,both the upper limit and the lower limit were significantly increased,which showed that the scale of industrial water consumption had a positive impact on the economicreturns and could increase the scale of industrial water consumption.From the perspective of different industrial sectors,the water consumption scale of industrial production sector,municipal living sector,agricultural sector and ecological environment sector were [20024250,24794000] million tons,[5682294,10681185]million tons,[26910,34518] million tons and [35059,52588] million tons respectively,and the corresponding economic benefits were [300144,545942] million yuan,[7696,30570] million yuan,[60554,92097] million yuan and 0 million yuan respectively.The industrial and municipal sectors are the major consumers of water resources,with the largest contribution to the economic benefits of the industrial sector,accounting for [95%,97%].The ecological compensation needed to be paid by the downstream area to the upstream area is [239.9771,286.4005] million yuan,an increase of [-29.7720,16.6514] million yuan compared with the deterministic optimization model,which can effectively reduce the ecological compensation and reduce the financial pressure of local governments.(3)The results of the optimal allocation of water resources based on the interval two-stage stochastic programming method showed that: considering the interval uncertainty and five different hydrological runoff scenarios,the lower limit of the overall economic benefit was [344186,370647]million yuan,and the upper limit was[656093,675568] million yuan.The overall economic benefits of the basin and each county are in the order of extremely abundant hydrological runoff > abundant hydrological runoff > flat hydrological runoff > dry hydrological runoff > extremely dry hydrological runoff.The water volume is positively correlated with the economic benefits.Xinluo District of Fujian Province in the upper reaches has the largest decrease in the lower limit economic benefit,and Xingning County of Guangdong Province in the lower reaches has the largest increase.The minimum and maximum increase of upper limit economic benefits are Shanghang County in Fujian Province and Xingning County in Guangdong Province.The total compensation amount is[261.3975,277.1206]million yuan as the lower limit and [272.7045,300.0580]million yuan as the upper limit from the extremely low water year to the high-water year.As a whole,the amount of ecological compensation in each county was also ranked in the order of extremely abundant > abundant > flat > withered >extremely withered,and the amount of water was positively correlated with the amount of ecological compensation.(4)Based on the interval two-stage robust stochastic programming method,the optimal allocation of water resources in the Tingjiang(Hanjiang)Basin shows that the total economic benefit and ecological compensation amount have certain rules with the change of the robust coefficient,and the ecological compensation amount tends to decrease with the increase of the robust coefficient,which represents the increase of the stability of the system,and the economy and stability are obtained a good balance.Compared with the interval two-stage stochastic programming method,the total economic benefits and ecological compensation amount of the Tingjiang(Hanjiang)Basin show a downward trend,which shows that the interval two-stage robust stochastic programming method reduces the economic benefits to improve stability and avoid risks.By changing the robust value,better planning schemes can be obtained in different risk levels and different situations,which is scientific for decision makers Elastic and reasonable planning of water resources in Tingjiang(Hanjiang)Basin provides theoretical support.To sum up,this study combines the management requirements of water resource utilization online and water environment quality baseline in “Three lines and one list”and introduces ecological compensation into water resource planning,constructs the optimization allocation model of water resources in Tingjiang(Hanjiang)Basin,realizes the linkage optimization of ecological compensation and water resource allocation,industrial structure and pollutant discharge,and obtains the scheme of retionalizing the total amount of ecological compensation and maximizing the overall economic benefits,which has certain guiding significance for the development of water resources planning and ecological compensation. |
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