Schedule Planning Model For Complex Equipment Development Project With Hierarchical Control Mode

The capacity to develop complex equipment product is an important indicator of the level of national industrial technology,and the development of complex equipment is of great significance to promote the industrial structure upgrading,and to build an innovative country.Complex equipment development is a systematic project,involving hundreds of participants,technical difficulties,and numerous uncertain factors,thus schedule planning is difficult.Since schedule planning is the basic procedure of schedule controlling and procurement,etc,it is important to construct a pertinence schedule plan,taking the characteristics of the complex development process into account,which plays an important role in helping meet the schedule plan,and in enhancing the schedule management of complex equipment development project.The schedule planning of complex equipment development project is very complicated,thus phased and hierarchical control mode is widely used by enterprises where develop complex equipment.This paper analyzes the connotation and structure of the mode,and then introduces the difficulties of schedule planning in different levels and different stages of complex equipment development process.In particular,the main difficulties of the lead-time decision in feasibility study stage include the insufficient information concerning market and technique,and the different interests pursued by major manufacturer,customers,competitors,government departments and many other participants.After the lead-time of the project is decided,to make sure the lead time is met,the main difficult task in the development stage is to design schedule plan for various levels of the development progress,with uncertainty,rework,and iterative work and other problems in the development process considered.Furthermore,the key aspects of the schedule plan is identified,which provide the focus of schedule control.Aiming at these problems,this paper constructs a series of models,whose main contents are summarized as follows:(1)Conflict analysis model with uncertain and sensitive preferences for lead time decision.Lead time decision should consider the desired interests of different parties involved in the development of complex equipment,however the game model is difficult to apply,due to the insufficient information pertaining to market and technique in initial stage,conflict analysis is thus used,since it only need preferences and options.First,considering the case that the decision makers‘ preferences are sensitive to the different potential future outcomes through the long lead time of the development of complex equipment,this part proposes a conflict analysis model with uncertain preference sensitive to scenarios,and then defines its global stability and preference aggregation stability,respectively.Moreover,the equilibrium achieved earlier may not be satisfactory,therefore,we devise two kinds of conflict analysis model with unknown preferences sensitive to a optimization model,assuming that partial preferences of the decision maker can be changed by a mediator or a decision maker with high negotiation ability.Specially,the goals of the proposed models are to minimize the input cost and the coordination workload,respectively,with desired equilibriums as constraints.Finally,the algorithm is designed based on genetic algorithm.(2)The CF-GERT network model for modelling the develop process of complex project.Complex equipment development process faces various uncertain factors,complex logical relationship,and encounters rework,loop,etc.To model this complex process,this paper establishes a new GERT model named CF-GERT model,whose w-functions are products of the corresponding probability and characteristic function,and then proves that the transform properties of CF-GERT is the same as the signal flow graph.Further,we propose the matrix representation of CF-GERT network and then construct a matrix solution algorithm.Finally,the algorithm aiming to derive probability density function is designed based on inversion Fourier transform or a numerical method.CF-GERT provides a tool for characterizing the development process and constructing schedule planning,and analyzing schedule risk.(3)The joint chance-constrained programming model of reversing CF-GERT for schedule planning breakdown.There are some unknown parameters in the CF-GERT,characterizing the develop process of complex equipment,because of the application of new materials,new technologies and other uncertain factors.Under the case where the lead time has been decided,the remaining important problem is to optimize these uncertain parameters.This part devise a joint chance-constrained programming model for reversing CF-GERT,where the goal is to minimize the expected completion,and the constraints incorporating schedule risk constraint and budget constraint.The solution based on GA is also designed,offering a way for building schedule plan of a sub-task under known lead-time.(4)Optimal due date quoting model for complex equipment product under CVaR.This part investigates a due date quoting problem for a complex equipment development project with stochastic duration,and defines the project profit as the difference between the price and the cost that is comprised of production cost and earliness-tardiness penalties.Furthermore,conditional risk at value(CVaR)is employed as a performance measure to describe the decision maker‘s risk attitude.At last,we give the optimal due date under fixed price contract,linearly variable price contract and piecewise variable price contract,respectively,and analyze the effect of penalty coefficient of earliness on the optimal due date.(5)The key link recognition technique for CF-GERT modeling complex equipment development process based on schedule risk.To identify the key link of CF-GERT for complex equipment development process can provide managers with control focus,which is conducive to ensuring the schedule plan and delivery time.This part defines a novel measure of schedule risk in a comprehensive view of both tardy probability and tardy loss,calculates the elasticity of the CF-GERT parameters,which is defined as the ratio of the percentage of schedule risk change to the percentage of the changed value of network parameters.Finally,we conduct an elasticity analysis to identify key links in the CF-GERT network that facilitate the control of schedule risk.Conflict analysis model with sensitive preferences extends the conflict analysis method in the case where preferences are variable to scenarios or coordination and optimization,and solves the conflict problem of complex equipment lead time decision involving multi–stakeholder;CF-GERT model and its matrix method can not only obtain the same result as the classical GERT model,but also derive probability density function,and greatly reduce the computational effort;The joint chance constraint model of CF-GERT inverse problem improves the robustness of the schedule plan,taking the stochastic uncertainty of activity duration into account;Optimal due date quoting model for complex equipment product under CVaR condsiders the mapping relationship between the product price and due date,the production cost,the penalty cost and the risk attitude of the decision maker,presents the optimal due date under the stochastic completion time.Finally,the key link recognition technology based on CF-GERT,defines schedule risk from the perspective of delay probability and delay cost,and identifies the key points of schedule risk control using elasticity analysis.The last four models based on the CF-GERT network model provide a new way for describing the complex equipment development process,setting schedule plan and due date,and identifying the key links of schedule risk control.