| The Han River is the largest tributary of the Yangtze River and the source water area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project and Han to Wei water diversion project.The Han River is the largest tributary of the Yangtze River.There are many large reservoirs in the Han River Basin,and it also undertakes the task of water supply and power generation.Under the policy measures of comprehensive harnessing of the Han River,protection of water sources and conversion of farmland to forestry,the elements of society-ecology-hydrology in the upper reaches of the Han River have evolved gradually under the interaction,and green streams and blue hills have been further protected.Therefore,it is important theoretical significance and application value for studying the evolution process and characteristics of the society-ecology-hydrology system of Han River.This study analyzed the change law of social-ecological-hydrological in the upper reach of the Han River in southern Shaanxi,model of social-ecological-hydrological evolution model was contructed,future evolution of social-ecological-hydrological process was studied,providing theory and suggestions for the soco-economic development of the upper reache of the Han River.The main results of this study are as follows:(1)The correlation coefficient analysis method,Kendall rank correlation test and mutation method were used to reveal the change law of regional socioeconomic factors.The results showed that the total population showed an overall upward trend,and its growth rate and urbanization rate had a sudden change in 2002.The factors that characterize the level of economic development all changed significantly in 2005,and entered the stage of rapid development,the growth rate began to decline in the later period of the study period.Among the agricultural development factors,the area of cultivated land declined to significantly decreased to tend to be stable and slightly increased;grain yield showed a downward trend,and mutation occurred in 2002;the livestock stocks showed a linear trend,but its growth rate showed a not significant downward trend(2)Statistical method,mutation test and wavelet analysis were used to study the change law of regional ecology,hydrology and meteorology.The results showed that the coverage of forest and grassland increased significantly,and the mutation occurred in 2006.The annual runoff of Shiquan Station showed a not significant downward trend,and had a sudden change in 1991.The precipitation showed a significant downward trend,and a sudden change occurred around 1985.Evaporation showed a not significant upward trend,and changed abruptly in 1994.The results of wavelet periodic analysis showed that there were five peaks in the annual runoff series of Shiquan Station,and three peaks in the annual precipitation and potential evaporation.(3)By Principal component analysis and Grey correlation analysis to clarify the correlation between socio-economic subsystem,ecological subsystem and water resources above the Shiquan section and the Shiquan-Baihe section.The results showed that there was a high correlation between the socio-economic principal components,ecological factors and change in annual runoff in the two regions.(4)The boundary of the socio-eco hydrological evolution model was and determined,and it qualitatively analyzed the causal relationship of each factor in the model.The results showed that the increase of the proportion of livestock stocks,cultivated land area and irrigation area,the increase of natural population growth rate and urbanization rate,the increase of industrial water quota and industrial added value,and the increase of the third industry personnel would cause the increase of total water consumption in the region,and lay the foundation for the next step to establish the evolution model.(5)Based on the quantitative relationship among the variables in the system,a benchmark model of socio-ecological-hydrological model of Han River in the southern Shaanxi was constructed.On the basis of benchmark model,the accuracy of model was improved by changing the parameters.The model validity was verified by simulating the historical process,and an evolutionary model with good fitting effect was obtained.The maximum average error of the representative variables is 14.62%of Shiquan annual runoff.At the same time,six representative sensitive parameters were selected according to sensitivity analysis.(6)According to the sensitivity parameters,four development scenarios of natural continuation scenarios,economic development scenarios,green development scenarios and industrial structure adjustment scenarios were set up.According to the results of model operation and actual situation,optimum selection of schemes under two different conditions was given.According to the development scenario,some policy suggestions and measures are put forward,such as reducing industrial water quota,adjusting industrial structure properly,promoting the development of tertiary industry,reducing irrigation quota,and strengthening the reclamation of reserve land resources. |
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