Trade Effect Of Agricultural FDI And Its Microcosmic Interpretation

Under the background of the "New Normal" economy,China needs to consolidate and strengthen the basic position of agriculture.However,with the acceleration of domestic industrialization and urbanization,the contradiction between the shortage of cultivated land resources,water resource and population growth,food security has become increasingly prominent.The modernization and internationalization of China's agricultural industry is also facing many challenges.For example,the scale of imports of agricultural products has expanded year by year,but it has not mastered the necessary price discourse right in the international agricultural products market.Besides,agricultural transnational enterprises in developed countries have dominated the international division of labor and trade pattern of agriculture by the advantages of capital,technology and brand.Typically,"Food Dollars" strategy by United States will seriously hampered the development of agricultural enterprises and the process of agricultural modernization of China.To ensure domestic food security,China needs to speed up the adjustment of agricultural industrial structure and get rid of the bottleneck of resources,at the same time,it also needs to exploit the overseas agricultural resources by "two markets and two resources" strategy especially by utilizing peripheral geopolitics.The development of "One Belt and One Road" initiative will promote the establishment of a huge agricultural overseas investment market,which is the global agricultural production chain system dominated and built by China.The strategy provides an important opportunity for domestic agriculture related enterprises and agricultural resources of countries along "One Belt and One Road" to fit in depth in the value chain system,and will also alleviate the long-term contradiction between the steady growth of China's macro economy and the shortage of agricultural resources.International trade and investment play an important role in economic exchanges between countries.In the context of macroeconomic operation at home and abroad,this paper examines the trade performance and trade effect of bilateral agriculture FDI between China and the countries along "One Belt and One Road" at the macro level.This paper analyzes the correlation between FDI and industrial structure adjustment,industrial correlation index from the industrial level.Furthermore,This paper analyzes the impact mechanism of foreign capital on exports of enterprises from the micro level and provide an explanation for the trade effect of agricultural FDI at the macro level.Our research may provide a strong reference basis for the formulation and adjustment of the "Two-Way"foreign investment policy and related industrial policies in the process of China's agricultural modernization.In this paper,the above propositions are incorporated into a unified analytical framework,and the following research work has been done:First,based on the triangle model of output gap,this paper examines the impact of agricultural output gap on the price stability of agricultural products from the perspective of the two sectors of agriculture in China.The results show that the negative agricultural output gap has a direct positive effect on the prices of agricultural and sideline products.There is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between industrial and agricultural output gap.The gap between industrial and agricultural output constitutes the total output gap,which will cause inflation pressure and affect macroeconomic stability.It proves the necessity of maintaining the supply of agricultural production and maintaining the stability of macro-economy in china.Second,according to the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database(UN Comtrade)and Global Agro-Ecological Zones(GAEZ),this paper calculates the Revealed Comparative Advantage(RCA)index,Trade Intensity Index(TII)and trade complementarity index(TIC)of China's agricultural trade.At the total level and the HS coding 01-24 product level,this paper evaluates the trade status,and then screen out he national market with broad development prospects.Third,based on the revision of the general equilibrium trade gravity model of Bergstrand(1985),the paper introduces the FDI,subsidy and policy system factors that embody the characteristics of agricultural products trade.Referring to Armstrong(2007),this paper introduces stochastic frontier method(SFA)into the benchmark model and construct a stochastic frontier gravity model with dynamic variables of FDI and economic freedom.The results of GLS estimation and IV(instrumental variable)estimation of benchmark gravity model show that China's absorption and utilization of FDI from countries along "One Belt and One Road" have a positive impact on the scale of China's agricultural import with 1-2 periods of time-lag.While the negative impact of economic freedom of countries along "One Belt and One Road" has 1 period of time-lag.The time-varying test of the stochastic frontier gravity model shows that the non-efficiency of trade decreases with time,and the one step estimation confirms that the effects of FDI and economic freedom are realized through the path of non-efficiency of trade.The coefficient of stochastic frontier efficiency shows that there is huge potential of agricultural trade between China and the countries along "One Belt and One Road".Fourth,based on the industrial added value data,input-output data and agricultural industrial enterprises data,this paper uses the grey relational analysis method to study the transmission mechanism of FDI(OFDI)trade effect from the intermediate perspective.The conclusion shows that FDI and OFDI have significant influence on the adjustment of agricultural industrial structure in china.And they have significant correlation with the influence coefficient of agricultural industry related indicators,Sensitivity coefficient,driving force coefficient and technical efficiency of agricultural enterprises.Fifth,this paper constructs the export decision equation and export intensity equation of China's agricultural processing enterprises from the micro enterprise level,using Heckman sample selection model of Probit+OLS and MLE two step estimation of maximum likelihood estimation method to verify the effect of the FDI,enterprise technical efficiency heterogeneity in the export decision and export intensity selection.By constructing the cross term of FDI and technical efficiency,and the cross term of FDI and industry correlation,this paper confirms the specific mechanism and path of foreign capital affecting export behavior of enterprises.The research shows that the participation of foreign capital has a significant positive effect on the enterprise's export decision-making propensity and the export intensity,and this positive effect is achieved through the FDI transmission path of industrial correlation which has an impact on the technical efficiency of enterprises.Then,this paper groups the samples according to the export intensity and the participation degree of foreign capital,and then replace the variables of the financing constraints of the control variables,which provide a robust support for the above conclusions.This paper furtherly examines the Probit,Biprobit and Heckman models under the dual choice of interval decision making for export decisions and export intensity.The results show that the effect of FDI on the dual decision is proved,and the influence path is like the exit intensity equation.Sixth,based on the cross term of technical efficiency and FDI,this paper extends the gravity model of trade.Combining the industrial enterprise database with the export data of agricultural products from the countries along“One Belt and One Road",this paper verifies the influence mechanism of the technical efficiency of enterprises on the scale of export trade at the macro level.The results show that,consistent with the micro level performance,technical efficiency promotes the growth of export scale through the cross effect with FDI.The main innovation points are as follows:This paper combines the theory of firm heterogeneity,the theory of industrial association and the gravity model of traditional investment expansion.This makes the trade effect of agricultural FDI at the macro level and effect of foreign capital on the export behavior of enterprises at micro level linked up through the conduction mechanism of the industry correlation from the intermediate perspective,and then form a unified analysis framework and expand the theoretical logic of agricultural trade and investment research.At the technical level,this paper introduces stochastic frontier approach to the study of agricultural product trade,and overcomes the estimation bias caused by the omission of variables.This paper introduces the maximum likelihood estimation of Heckman model into the export behavior of agriculture related enterprises,and overcomes the problem of "sample selection bias".