| Coal occupies the main position of energy production and consumption in China for a long time.Because of the uneven distribution of coal resources and the separation area of production and consumption,coal transportation plays an important role in the smooth operation and development of China’s social economy.With the change of the role and status of our country in the world economic cycle system,China’s energy,especially the coal,will show greater and more frequent volatility from all kinds of factors at home and abroad.The construction of the comprehensive transportation system in China and the reform of the railway and other departments will also bring new changes to the pattern of coal transportation.In view of this,based on coal transportation pattern in China,this paper focuses on the future development of China’s coal transportation and the urgent need to study and solve the problem of coal transportation in the theoretical and methodological problems of coal transportation,and studies some problems with great practical significance in coal transportation.The main contents and conclusions of the dissertation are shown as follows:(1)Based on the statistics of the production and consumption,import and export of coal in China,this paper analyses the structure and evolution process of energy dissipation in China in recent years.Based on the current situation of coal production and consumption,this paper analyzes the transportation mode of coals in China.Combining with the energy development plan in the future,this paper analyzes some problems in China’s coal multimodal transportation.The results show that the source of coal is mainly produced in Inner Mongolia,Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces of China,which accounted for more than 63%of the total production.The coal is imported from Indonesia,Australia and other countries,and mainly imported to the Pan Pearl River Delta,Yangtze River Delta and the Bohai rim region.Besides,the coal source is mainly consumed in the provinces of Shandong,Shanxi,Inner Mongolia,Hebei,Jiangsu,Henan,Shaanxi.In general,the coal in China is transported from west to east and from south to north.However,some problems still exist in coal transportation,for example,the capacity of railway network cannot meet the demand of coal transportation,the transportation mode is not reasonable,and the cost of coal transportation is too high.(2)This paper analyzes the cost pattern of railway transportation,combined transport of railway and water carriage and imported coal,constructs a generalized cost function based on the whole life cycle of coal circulation,and builds a competitivemodel of coal transportation based on random utility theory.Taking the issue of coal transportation in Central China as the background,the competitiveness of different transportation routes is analyzed,and the influence degree and substitution scope of coal pit price and transport rate on the competitiveness of transportation route are studied.Research shows that the coal pit price from 150 yuan/ton to 600 yuan/ton,the coal market share in Central China of West Inner Mongolia,Shanxi and Shaanxi fell to 30%,33%and 35%respectively.The sensitivity of the combined transport of railway and water to the pit price of the coal production land is higher than that of the railway transportation.In different coal production and consumption areas,there are significant differences in the sensitivity of the competitiveness of the transportation route to the coal pit price.The import coal market is more dependent on the water transport,and the domestic coal is more affected by the railway transport price and capacity.(3)On the basis of analyzing the dynamic pricing of coal,a two-level optimization model of coal transportation strategy is established.The upper level model establishes a coal dispatching optimization model based on the dynamic price and the consumer competition behavior,which determines the coal dispatching plan of the coal production area and the consumption place,and the lower level model establishes the coal transportation network allocation optimization model,which determines the optimal path of coal dispatching.In this paper,a combination of genetic algorithm,Floyd algorithm and Frank-Wolfe algorithm is proposed.Taking China’s coal transportation network as the background,this paper studies the changes of coal transportation scheme and the path selection strategy of fixed price,linear dynamic price and S dynamic price,and focuses on the analysis of coal prices,transport rates,transport form of cross regional coal transportation pattern influence.The research shows that,with the increase of supply and marketing ratio of coal dispatching area,the total rate of coal circulation falls faster than the fixed price mechanism under the dynamic price mechanism,while the total rate of coal circulation decreases faster under the S dynamic pricing mechanism.Under the dynamic price mechanism,the coal purchase price of consumers is lower than the fixed price mechanism.When considering the competition behavior of consumers,the total rate of coal transportation is lower than that of system optimization.The market of the combined transport of railway and water is sensitive to the change of the transport distance,and the total cost of the life cycle of the coal circulation is less sensitive to the change of the transport distance.(4)Based on the construction of Mengxi-Huazhong railway corridor,using coal transportation strategy optimization model,this paper studies the specific quantitative effects of construction of West Inner Mongolia central railway coal transportation corridor on the pattern of coal transportation in China and the flow distribution of coal transportation path and analyses the interactive relationship between transportation cost,transportation scheme and the volume of all traffic modes.The research shows that the construction of Mengxi-Huazhong railway corridor can improve the balance of energy supply and demand in the Two-Lake and One-river area.Under the premise of the constant total demand of coal in every province,the amount of coal turned in inland provinces such as Hubei,Hunan and Anhui has increased,while the coal imports in Guangdong and Fujian provinces have increased.The construction of the railway corridor can effectively reduce the coal logistics cost of The Two-Lake and One-river area.After Mengxi-Huazhong railway corridor was operated,the proportion of area with higher logistics cost will be significantly reduced,while the proportion of area with lower logistics cost was increased.The construction of the corridor enhances the attraction of the railway,railway total turnover is increased,and the sharing rate of railway and inland river is slightly lower than before.The coal demand in central hinterland is satisfied by the railway,compared to the former ways like combined transport of railway and water carriage and imported coal,coal logistics costs decreased significantly;Meanwhile,the sales scope of the coal hinterland in the Inner Mongolia and Shanxi provinces has been narrowed.The hinterland area of Shaanxi’s coal market has increased,and the hinterland of Xinjiang’s coal market has not changed much. |
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