Modeling,Evolution And Application Of Big Data Of Forest Pest In Changbai Mountains By Means Of Network Science

With the deepening of theoretical research of network science,network science is gradually penetrating into and crossing with scientific research of other disciplines.So in network era,it is an extremely significant and challenging task to make quantitative and qualitative analysis of all kinds of complex issues.In June,from 11th to 13th,in Marseille,at Statphys26 Satellite International Conference,A.Rus Hoelzel,a phD from Cambridge University,professor of biological science in Thrun University,will co-present a research paper in association with our research team,which is entitled Pine-caterpillar Networks in Changbai Mountain Based on the Space and Time Influence Domain.This paper will be the first to apply network science to forest pest research.The analysis method of researching forest pests is by means of network science.ie,the research is done to monitor,investigate,analyze,and forecast big data of forest pests in the perspective of network science.After dealing with the data,the network modeling of forest pest relationship,the systematic analysis of pest relationship network structure,the summary of evolution laws,the exploration of distribution characteristics of forest pests,influence area and the time and space change of diffusion and spread are carried out,which can provide scientific data in forecasting forest pests.Among the big statistic data from the forest pest monitoring networks of State Forestry Bureau,including 1000 state center forecast stations as well as from the state,province,city,county measuring and reporting organizations,the research team has chosen the data of the leaf-eating pests from 2009 to 2013,in 102 county level regions along Changbai Mountains whose forest forms are similar,and then has made network modeling,characteristic analysis,structure evolution and application,focusing the research on the pest relationship of leaf-eating pest species,Pine-caterpillar species,hyphantria cunea,and three network models of forest pests have been built,namely,the basic network model based on space influence domain,improved model,and network model based on time and space influence domain.On this basis,this paper has established pest relationship network of Changbai Mountains,pest relationship network of Pine-caterpillar species,as well as pest relationship network of hyphantria cunea.This thesis has also analyzed and discussed the evolution laws of hyphantria cunea Pest network.The thesis has done applied research pest characteristics of Pine-caterpillar species.In order to prevent forest pests from spreading,and doing great threat to human,this paper has built different network models which will be used as guidelines on prevention measures.After analyzing the relationship between forest pest and spatial structure and dynamic characteristics of forest pest population,basic forest pest network model,improved model and forest pest network model in time and space domain.In addition,this thesis has set up leaf-eating pest relationship network in Changbai Mountains on the basis of the basic network modeling based on space influence domain and improved modeling.Our research is a combination of theory and practice.This thesis has also studied the evolution of hyphantria cunea,a worldwide quarantine pest,and then built pest relationship network of hyphantria cunea,based on the improved model of influence domain of space,mainly focusing on the evolution analysis of hyphantria cunea network.In terms of evolution analysis results of the relevant characteristics of network structure,the degree distribution of the pest relationship network of hyphantria cunea matches the power law distribution,with the characteristic of being scale-free.The monthly pest relationship network of hyphantria cunea has a small average path and high clustering coefficient.The pest relationship network of hyphantria cunea also has the characteristics of being a small world,a closely-connected network,assortativity,hierarchical structure,a stable average degree evolution of nodes and little variation.After comparing the result of network analysis with the real hazard situation of hyphantria cunea,this thesis has drawn a conclusion that the basic ways of the spread of hyphantria cunea are closely related to its geographic location and human activities.Based on the above researches,this article has focused on its applied research on the exploration of the interaction of forest pest population.By selecting the kind of Pine-caterpillar as research object which belong to the genera of lappet moth,this thesis has built pest relationship network of Changbai Pine-caterpillar species based on time and space influence domain.After making a systematic analysis of network structure characteristics of Pine-caterpillar,this thesis has found that the network of Pine-caterpillar doesn't have the characteristic of being a small world,and has a bad connection of network nodes,and therefore it is a loose network.This thesis has also put forward the prevention strategy that pest prevention and control should be carried on both with single effort and joint efforts.