The Evaluation And Development Forecast For The New Urbanization In Henan Province

The18th CPC National Congress proposed that we should keep to the Chinese-style path of carrying out the urbanization.Speed up improvements to institutions and mechanisms for promoting integrated urban and rural development, with a focus on integrating urban and rural planning, infrastructure and public service. We should ensure equal exchange of factors of production between urban and rural areas and balance allocation of public resources between them. What we aim to achieve is a new type of relations between industry and agriculture and between urban and rural areas in which industry promotes agriculture, urban areas support rural development, agriculture and industry benefit each other, and there is integrated urban and rural development. new urbanization development strategy initially formed to distinguish between past urbanization development model and mechanism, and new urbanization and the core lies the key to establishing and positioning the new urban-rural relations. How to understand the development of China’s urbanization from the perspective of the new urban-rural relationship is the next major content of the new urbanization research in China, but also the core and guiding framework for the development of new urbanization level evaluation index system. Based on the perspective of the new urban-rural relations, urban-rural integration theoretical models were constructed,as a theoretical background of new relations between urbanization and rural development. After that, according to the requirements of the new urban-rural relationship development, it proposed index system that refers to the relationship between the new context of urbanization and rural development of our country, and ultimately the scientific interpretation of the new urban-rural relations. In order to scientifically achieve the understanding of urbanization in Henan and assess China’s current practice of the new urban-rural relationship Based on the current index system, the paper constructs the level of urbanization development evaluation index system in Henan Province, the index system including economic urbanization, population urbanization, urbanization, social, spatial urbanization, life urbanization, urbanization and other environmental aspects. Both theoretical and practical aspects of the index system constitute a research paper ought index system level and at the level of the Real distinction On this basis, the use of principal component analysis from the time series and cross-sectional direction in terms of2001-2011urbanization18cities in Henan Province were analyzed using analysis of variance for18cities in Henan Province to study differences in urbanization, trend extrapolation using the moving average method and the development of urbanization18cities in Henan forecast; main conclusions are as follows:1, Urbanization development, including the development of not only the town itself, but also the degree of integration of urban and rural development, the two cannot be biased. From the perspective of the new urban-rural relationship, the basic theoretical models of urbanization and rural development are in the performance of our integration model. Urban-rural integration mode follow the people-oriented, balanced development, organic growth, inclusive and harmonious urban and rural integration and other concepts, the specific structural system constructed the new urban-rural relationship as the core, take the new urbanization as institution and policy platform, and take the urban-rural integration for value of the target. Urban-rural integration model can reflect the new urban-rural relationship in the basic ways of urbanization development path and structure. In particular study, the main analytical framework through dual "theoretical model+index model", forms the basic paradigm of the new urban-rural relationship analysis of the urbanization.2, from the direction of the time series, the18cities in Henan Province2001-2011urbanization level both showed an upward trend and characteristics. The average level of urbanization after the top three areas are Zhengzhou, Anyang, Hebi, the average level of urbanization in the region is ranked third in Zhumadian, Pingdingshan, Nanyang During2001-2006in2011, the average level of urbanization in each of18cities in Henan Province presents a cross-section view of the fluctuations in the direction of changing characteristics; Overall showing the variations that first decline after rising, then fall, then rise from the fall and rise of the term, the changes in the macroeconomic environment and policy and adjustment, as well as the pace of economic growth are closely related. When implementing accommodative macroeconomic policies, the level of urbanization is on the rise, when the tightening of macroeconomic policies, the level of urbanization is in the decline stage.3, the main component analysis showed that there is a different contribution for the urbanization evaluation of the process in different periods and in different regions, but it is not without a pattern, generally speaking, a greater impact and contribution to regional indicators of urbanization mainly reflected in the economy of urbanization, population urbanization, urbanization and social life of urbanization, the impact on regional urbanization and contributions smaller space index mainly reflected in urbanization urbanization and environmental aspects; therefore the problem of space urbanization and environmental aspects of urbanization should be the direction of the18cities and problems of urban development in Henan Province, should be concerned to ensure that the regional level of urbanization develop in a healthy, sustainable and comprehensive way,4, normality and variance homogeneity test results showed that each of the years2001to2011in18cities in Henan Province Urbanization data are normality and variance homogeneity test Therefore, it is meet the basic requirements of the sample data by using the analysis of variance, Variance analysis showed that high levels of economic development, there is a statistically significant difference between the sense of urbanization, the urban low; namely a high level of regional economic development, the level of urbanization is also a corresponding high and low level of economic development region, urbanization level corresponding relatively low.5, from forecasting methods used, the18cities in Henan Province Urbanization predict, there are two kinds of trend extrapolation and prediction methods moving average method is mainly used. Judging from the use of predictive models, using trend extrapolation forecasting urbanization in the city, mainly in the form of prediction models for the linear and quadratic functions; using the moving average method to forecast urban urbanization, the movement cycle3were selected as the length. From the predicted results, Henan18cities urbanization trends mainly into four types, namely, ascending, descending, descending after the first rise, no significant change. The type of Rising area, including Anyang, Hebi, Jiyuan, Jiaozuo, Kaifeng, Luoyang, Sanmenxia, Xinxiang, Zhengzhou, etc.; descending region, including Nanyang, Puyang, Shangqiu etc.; rise after the first fall-type region, including Luohe, Xuchang, Zhumadian, etc.; no significant changes in the region, including Pingdingshan, Xinyang and Zhoukou and so on.