| In order to responding to climate change on the regional level, Intergrated Regional Assessment of Global Climate Change Model(IRAM) should be deve loped. Combined with the practical needs of our region’s carbon emissions, and based on the carbon emission economic principles, this paper researched and developed a regional energy and carbon emission strategic decision support syst em as the core exploration of IRAM.Applying econometric methods, dynamic optimization theory and methods, Investment and production theory and fuzzy goal programming approach, this p aper quantitative assessed the fairness of our domestic carbon emissions policie s. Then this paper analyzed the effects of different policies to regional develop ment and fairness and proposed optimization objectives and paths, discussed th e effectiveness of energy structure evolution, carbon emission rights allocation, carbon tax and other regional level economic policies. In order to study domes tic regional impact about climate change and protection, the paper investigated the reasons why different regions form carbon demand contradictions and discu ssed how to resolve it based on the theory of asymmetric information. Then th rough rigorous analysis from the sight of climate change and economic uncerta inty development, a model was constructed to focus on the regional carbon em ission mechanisms and climate protection equitable control under the constraints of regional geographic formations. Technically, based on C#.NET and program developing tools of Arcgis Engine, using methods of intelligent data mining, dynamic system simulation, etc., a decision support system of China’s regional carbon emission based on GIS was developed, so it could analyze and evalua te different scenarios under which each district of China’s industry evolution, p opulation and economic, demand for carbon emissions and energy evolution ca n be simulated.First, a lot of domestic and international research results about carbon emi ssion and economic growth were reviewed. Combined with China’s actual situa tion, the basic question of this article was raised, which is how to ensure this country’s economic growth steady and achieve its target of carbon emission? B ased on the question, energy becomes a factor of production and be introduced into production function. Under the framework of endogenous growth model, dynamic optimization theory was used to examine the intrinsic link and mecha nism of all factors which includes advances in technology, renewable resources of energy and energy efficiency. Theoretical models suggest that as technolog y advances, output growth and energy efficiency will also be improved. Improv ing the proportion and effectiveness of renewable energy in energy system is b eneficial to ease the contradiction between economic growth and carbon emissi on. In addition, the government to take action to promote renewable energy or low-carbon energy industry, reduce the elastic of renewable, could help to inc rease the economic benefits of carbon emission reductions.Secondly, economic optimization model and WITCH model were mixed to construct an energy model. Through empirical research, the possibility and fea sibility of carbon emission reduction were discussed, and then the trends and r ule of China’s energy structure evolution was analyzed. The results show that by improving the secondary industry, China can still get a larger reduction pot ential space. If China doesn’t reduce its carbon emission, the curve of carbon emission would still be an inverted U-shaped, but would not reach its carbon emission targets. Conversely, if China reduces its carbon emission, then these a ctions can have a great effect on energy and the effect of non-electric energy is greater than electrical energy, and decline rate of the proportion of coal-elec tric and the increase rate of low-carbon energy would accelerated with the imp lementation of such a constraint.Third, input-output model and fuzzy goal programing model were used an d the conclusion of energy structure evolution module were introduced to const ruct an optimal model of industrial structure and a scenario analysis model of carbon tax. The results show that industrial structure adjustment was mainly aff ect the quantity of coal and the proportion of gas. Difference between10%an d20%scenarios were mainly reflected on the quality of CO2emission, the20%scenario have a bigger change in amount, but the change in amount were dec lining with optimization.In addition, the carbon tax policy have a positive effect on the reduction of CO2emission, for example, the emission reduction cost of Finland scenario is9700yuan/ton-CO2, the emission reduction cost of Swedish scenario is9670yuan/ton-CO2, the emission reduction cost of EU scenarios is9828yuan/ton-C O2. Finland scenario has a remarkable effect to enhance industry output, and S wedish scenario has a remarkable effect to reduce industry output.Fourth, the conclusion of optimization model and pervious research finding about allocation of carbon emission were introduced to construct a mixed mo del to discuss the fairness of carbon emission allocation over districts and the dynamic change of allocation principles. The results show that northern region of China is the traditional loss areas of carbon emissions rights, and southern area of China is the traditional surplus areas of carbon emission rights, this pa ttern would not change much in a short term. Moreover, if the carbon emissio n rights of all provinces were clarified by grade, the proportion of loss or sur plus carbon emission rights would have a low possibility to change; and chang ing the weights of principle in carbon emission rights, the base year to comput e carbon emission rights, and the depreciation coefficient or other factors woul d have an impact on regional difference of carbon emission rights. By compari ng four programs of carbon emission rights allocation, it would simple get the conclusion that the when depreciation coefficient were set to0.8, the weight of principle about population accumulate were set to0.6, and the weight of pri nciple about GDP were set to0.4, there have a smallest regional differences in carbon emission rights allocation and was most in favorable to the economic development of backward regions.Finally, the paper integrated all of the four modules, which include the ec onomic optimization module, the optimal energy structure evolution module, the industrial structure optimization and carbon tax module and the carbon emissi on rights allocation module. Then the relationship of all modules and relationsh ip of data flow were cleared up to mix all of the four modules into a unified integrated assessment models. At last, the paper developed a decision support system based on IAM was developed by using C#and other programming Ian guages. |
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