| As our country’s levels of urbanization and industrialization are improved, the consumption of fossil fuel(coal, petroleum, natural gas and so on) results in that carbon dioxide emission is increasing rapidly, which not only makes the environment worse but brings huge pressure to energy supply. So deep researches on carbon dioxide emission to formulate proper policies of reducing carbon dioxide emission not only improve these problems but also are major strategic issues while China’s economic development coordinates with environment.Every province is practice area and practical subject of carbon emission reduction in our country. Therefore, we need to analyze the regional differences of carbon emissions on evolution of time and space, find the spatial effect and factors that affect carbon dioxide emissions, seek the ways to implement the carbon emissions on different regions, decrease the total cost of the emission reduction, as well as, at the same time, not to influence the development of regional social economy. In view of this, what this paper will do is the followings:Firstly, the thesis uses IPCC method recognized internationally to calculate carbon dioxide emission coming from energy consumption of every province during 2004-2012, and utilizes space descriptive statistical analysis of GIS spatial analysis function to reveal spatial distribution. Then the GIS result shows constellation effect of carbon dioxide emission of all provinces is remarkable.Secondly, the thesis uses GIS to find all provinces’ centers of gravity, calculated the longitudes and latitudes, and finds the movement path of the center of carbon dioxide emission with economic center method during research time. The result indicates that the transfer of carbon center displayed the carbon dioxide emission from energy consumption is Southeast migrated not balanced during 2004-2012, and the center of gravity was shifting to northwest year after year.Thirdly, the thesis employs spatial econometric model panel in R software based on testing the correlation of carbon dioxide emission with Moran’ I index to analyze space effects(spillover effect or dependent effect) and main influence factors. In the process of special econometric, I adopted a new special weight, namely by virtue of gravitation model, making the special weight be depended on the carbon dioxide gravitation between provinces, which improved traditional special adjacent weight matrix and reflected the carbon relationship properly. In fact, this weight was simple and reasonable, moreover spatial model embodied the spillover and dependent effect of carbon dioxide emission.Finally, the thesis draws the final conclusions according to empirical result, then comes up with relative advices to decrease carbon dioxide emission for our country and all provinces by combining empirical results with facts, what’s more some specific questions need to solve and outlooks in research are stated. |
