Analysis On The Spatial-temporal Distribution Of Indirect Carbon Emissions From Chinese Household Consumption And Its Future Trend Under E-commerce Scenarios

Based on the fact that the energy consumption of products and services is one of the main driving forces of carbon emissions of residents in various countries and e-commerce is an emerging way to promote the consumption of products and services,it is of great practical significance for formulating corresponding carbon emission reduction strategies to study the development characteristics of indirect household carbon emissions(IHCE)in China,to analyze the stage and regional characteristics of IHCE,and to forecast future carbon emission trends driven by e-commerceThis paper first builds an input-output model(10)and structural decomposition analysis model(SDA)to account for IHCE and influencing factors of China from the time dimension.The results show,from 2002 to 2017,the total indirect household carbon emissions(IHCE)of China and the per capita carbon emissions showed an upward-declining trend,which reached its highest point in 2012.The carbon emission structure of urban consumption was relatively evenly distributed and development and enjoyment consumption accounted for a relatively large proportion,while rural areas were more concentrated and subsistence consumption accounted for a relatively large proportion.Income scale and consumption structure could promote the growth of consumption carbon emissions to a certain extent,while direct carbon emission intensity and production structure could effectively restrain carbon growth Due to the urbanization process and the different consumption habits of urban and rural residents,the factors of population and consumption tendency had opposite effects on carbon emissions in urban and rural areas.In general,the slowing of the increase in urban and rural carbon emissions was mainly due to the optimization of the transformation of the production structure and the strengthening of the negative effect of direct carbon emission intensitySecondly,from the spatial dimension,analyze the different characteristics and influencing factors of IHCE from urban and rural areas in each province.The results show,a decrease from east to west was showed in the spatial distribution.The eastern region was the main area,contributing nearly 50%of the increase in carbon emissions.The level and spatial distribution of carbon emissions per capita in urban and rural areas were quite different.The average urban per capita indirect carbon emissions rose from 1.39tC to 1.79tC,respectively and according to the path from north to south,it gradually shifted from a low level to a high level.The average rural per capita indirect carbon emissions rose from 0.44tC to 0.78tC,and the spatial distribution changes showed a trend of agglomeration from outside to inside.The scale of income had played a role in promoting the growth of urban and rural carbon emissions in all provinces and cities,and the intensity of direct carbon emissions had played a restraining role in all provinces except Heilongjiang,Fujian,Qinghai,and Xinjiang.Population had a greater effect on promoting urban carbon emissions in the developed eastern provinces,and on inhibiting rural carbon emissions in populated provinces such as Hebei and HenanFinally,based on the carbon emission prediction model,three different scenarios are set up based on the share of urban and rural network consumption,and the IHCE driving by e-commerce in 2025 and 2030 are analyzed.The results show that in 2030,IHCE are lower than in 2025,and the proportion of urban carbon emissions will decrease,while the proportion of rural carbon emissions will increase.This means that over time,rural IHCE will soon become the main source of total indirect carbon emissions Comparing the IHCE under the three scenarios,the order of magnitude is the rural share development scenario>the baseline scenario>the rural share restriction scenario.That is,when the proportion of rural online consumption increases,carbon emissions are greater than the carbon emissions generated when the proportion of urban online consumption increases.Therefore,compared with urban areas,changes in rural online consumption can have a greater impact on changes in carbon emissions.