Study On The Development Strategies Of China’s Aluminum Industry From The Background Of Economic Transition

At present, China entered the middle-later stage of industrialization, and changing theway of economic development is the focus of development in the future. Solvingexcess production capacity, high energy consumption, serious pollutions， slowdevelopment of high-end product and other problems as soon as possible andpromoting the sustainable development of aluminum industry are pressing andarduous tasks, which bring up new challenges for strategic research of thedevelopment of aluminum industry. According to latest research results, the existingproblems in the development of China’s aluminum industry have been preciselypinpointed and good proposals have been made. However, these results mostlyfocus on technological economics, environmental economics and analyses of middleand microcosmic level, while results that consider economic transition as macrobackground and of globalization resource configuration as macroscopic view are rare.Based on data of long period and large sample, the paper starts with laws of aluminumconsumption of developed countries, and establishes universal model for demandforecasting. The paper mainly uses quantitative method; understand the meaning ofthe economic transition of China thoroughly; contrastively analyzes current situationof distribution and industrial development of aluminum resources at home and abroad;predicts scientifically that China’s demand for aluminum of the future; devisesdevelopment strategy of the aluminum industry, which has distinct backgroundcharacteristic of times; hopes that it can be used for reference for relevant planningand policy. The major conclusions are as follows:First, peak value of aluminum demand of China will come around2025, and thedemand will reach32.8to36.5million tons, which is nearly the half of global demand,nearly the double of the demand in2011, and the total demand of2011to2030willreach520to630million tons, the quadruple of total consumption of the last20years.The aluminum demand of China in the future will be larger than that of any previous period.Second, reserve of domestic bauxite in China is being at the middle level ofabundance. From2001to2011, resource static protection period declined from135years to23years. Nowadays, resources supply in China is facing several challenges:domestic resources have the low quality and are over-centralized distribution, whichis adverse to resource allocation; overseas development starts late and relative systemhas not completely established, and enterprises lack motivation, which doesn’t provideeffective support for domestic aluminum industrial development.Third, there exists severe structural contradiction in aluminum industrial development.The domestic mine production cannot meet subordinate production needs, and there is30%surplus production of both alumina and electrolytic aluminum; and it is hard tocurb excess investment and blind expansion of production capacity; The pattern ofaluminum processing products is unreasonable, and the proportion of aluminummaterial of high added value is relatively low, lacking mature and perfect recyclingsystem for secondary aluminum.Fourth, based on the material flow analysis of production and consumption ofaluminum, measure and calculate the external dependence degree of bauxite, alumina,crude aluminum, aluminum material and secondary aluminum and the other parts ofaluminum industry, and then unreasonable structure of improting and exporting ofaluminum product are found to be the main reason why the high external dependencedegree of China has been reached, so the export of crude aluminum should be strictlyforbidden and the import of crude aluminum and aluminum material should beincreased reasonably.Fifth, in terms of background of the economic transformation, the idea of futuredevelopment of aluminum industry comes into sight: strictly restrict the unlimitedsprawl of capacity expansion in mining and dressing and smelting and eliminate outmoded productivity at the same time and increase the industrial concentrationgradually; extend the industrial chain and promote technological innovation andenhance the extra value of the products; properly deploy domestic resources andincrease the intensity of development of overseas resources and improve the supplyrate of domestic secondary resources and establish reliable resources guaranteesystem; adjust the industrial distribution and actively guide enterprises to exploit thefine energy resources of the western region; combine development abroad withindustry transfer, and transfer productivity of smelting to India and the Association ofSoutheast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and west Africa, and take the advantage ofbenefits of the development of these countries.