Based On Analysis Of Energy Utilization Of Carbon Pulse

Energy is the carrier of carbon, among which fossil energy is the main carrier of carbon. Coal, oil and natural gas have occupied more than90%of the world’s energy production and consumption for a long time. Fossil fuel is a strong driving force of human modern civilization, whilst the carbon dioxide (CO2) emission from its combustion is the main source of anthropogenic green house gas (GHG) emissions. In the U.S. and other developed countries, energy related carbon dioxide emission constitutes above90%of total CO2emissions and above75%of total GHG emissions.In consideration of the energy resource endowment situation of China that rich of coal, lack of oil and gas, and coal-fired power accounts for most of the electricity generation, our country would probably continue this coal-as-basis energy production and consumption pattern for a period of time in the future. Coal would constitute70%of energy production and consumption if this pattern keeps on. And more surprisingly, coal related CO2emission would grow fast to more than70%of total CO2emission which would keep an increasing trend. Therefore, we should pay much attention to the estimation accuracy of the fossil fuel related GHG emissions, especially the coal’s, for they are closely related to the national interests.Compared to former studies focusing on energy use and carbon emission, this dissertation attempts to break through and innovate in theoretical system and study methodology. First, based on the first-handed data and experts judges, this study mainly served for programs and the need of government policy-making. In Chapter3,4and5, this dissertation analyzed the energy use status and the regular pattern of U.S., China and Shanghai, especially the potential carbon emission factor estimating methodology for coal in China. Second, using mathematical models such as LEAP modal, scenario analysis and trend extrapolation, this dissertation quantified the energy use and carbon emission from2010to2050under different scenarios. LEAP-Shanghai modal consists of3integrated scenarios and8sub-scenarios which could simulate according to the index settings.The first part of the global core and basic judgments of this dissertation is from the participation of many research programs. Carbon flow analysis and carbon flow chart could easily and clearly reflect and describe the relationship between energy and environment especially CO2emissions. Coal related CO2emission is the main composition of energy related CO2emission, among which electricity generation, metallurgy, building material and chemical production industries took greater part of it. Transportation industry is the key emission source of oil consumption. Moreover, China’s energy structure is totally different from that of the developed countries which are featured as oil and gas constitutes most part. Thus we must construct our own converting standards combining the Chinese actual condition and international standards. The second part show the results of this dissertation that, first, it is hard to reverse the increasing trend of Shanghai’s energy consumption and carbon emission amount in a short time. The peak would appear probably in around2040which is a little earlier than that of the nation’s. To solve this problem, we must strengthen the public policy in the bellowing areas, reinforcing energy saving and emission mitigation policy and their implements, avoiding GDP-first developing concept, changing the life style from the consumption side and substituting coal and oil such high-carbon energy for natural gas and renewable clean energy.The principal achievements and innovations includes in the following aspects. First, this dissertation constructed LEAP-Shanghai modal to realize the scenario simulation of Shanghai’s energy use and carbon emission. Second, from the multidisciplinary point of view, this dissertation aims to explore and expose carbon flow which exists in energy, environment and economic system, and to seek the solution for carbon mitigation public policy though the analysis of carbon flow chart expression. This modal could automatically generates energy-use-based carbon flow chart according to the scenario index settings and display the view of Shanghai’s energy use and carbon emission view dynamically. And third, applying the carbon flow analysis method to different energy use and carbon mitigation policy scenario such as baseline scenario (BAU), mitigation scenario (MIT) and enhanced mitigation scenario (EMIT) and generating carbon flow charts to help understand the results, this method is not only an attempt in theory, but also a foundation source of technology selection and policy making in some degree.In conclusion, any new energy technology and public policy should be taken into account as early as possible for its applying complexity, changeability and uncertainty. Otherwise, it may cause irreversible damage. China is the most promising and emerging energy market with energy infrastructure structure and developing style not been fixed. For this reason, it will be much easier and realizable for China to select the energy technology roadmap that has comparative advantages than the developed countries.