Prediction And Analysis Of Industrial Energy Consumption And Carbon Emission In Henan Province

Facing the dual crisis of energy and environment, China aims to reach peak CO2 emission around 2030 and strive to achieve the target earlier. As one of the largest energy consuming province in China, Henan province is in the stage of accelerated development of industrialization and urbanization, and its energy consumption and carbon emission in the future will directly affect the realization of national carbon emission peak goal. The amount of energy consumption in 2013 was 219.09 million tons of standard coal in Henan province, ranking the 5th in China. In 2013 the industrial energy consumption accounted for 82.70% of total energy consumption in Henan province, which implies industry should be taken in the top priority of energy-saving and emission-reduction. Therefore, the industry is selected as the research subject, which was divided into steel, building materials, chemicals, nonferrous metals, power and coal industry, high-growing industry and other sector. The total amount of energy consumption and carbon emission of Henan Province in 2030 will be attained by predicting the energy consumption of each sector. The research provides scientific support in policy-making process for the government and relevant departments.Industrial energy consumption and carbon emission in Henan province were analyzed in this paper firstly. Then based on the LEAP model, five scenarios named as baseline scenario, industry structure optimizing scenario, energy structure adjusting scenario, energy efficiency improving scenario and comprehensive scenario were set out, in order to predict industrial energy consumption and carbon emissions in 2030. Moreover, cement industry was seclected as one of the typical industries in Henan province to analyze its energy-saving and emission-reduction potential in depth. Finally the results were summarized and the limitations and future research directions were pointed out.The results show that:(1) Henan province’s industrial energy consumption will continue to grow, but the growth rate slow down gradually. The energy consumption of Henan province will reach 324, 243, 252 and 184 million tons of coal equivalent in 2030 in baseline scenario, industry structure optimizing scenario, energy efficiency improving scenario and comprehensive scenario respectively.(2) Due to the rigid demand of electricity and high-growing industry, the energy consumption of power and high-growing industry in Henan province will show a significant upward trend. However, owing to the overcapacity of steel, building materials, chemicals and nonferrous metals, the total industrial energy demand of Henan province will present flat state.(3) Industrial carbon emission in Henan province will continue to grow, and peak around 2025. The carbon emission of Henan province’s industry will reach 987, 721, 844, 844 and 514 million tons in 2030 respectively in baseline scenario, industry structure optimizing scenario, energy structure adjusting scenario energy efficiency improving scenario and comprehensive scenario. In comprehensive scenario Henan province industrial carbon emissions will peak in 2025 and the carbon emission 517 million tons.( 4) The energy consumption, carbon emission and atmospheric pollutants emissions in Henan province’s cement industry will peak in 2015, and then gradually decreased. Among the 31 energy-saving technologies in cement industry, the technologies of blended cement replacement and utilization of alternative fuel have the largest reduction potential. Energy consumption of Henan Province’s cement industry in 2030 is expected to reach 613-920 million tons of coal equivalent. CO2 emission of Henan Province’s cement industry in 2030 will be 6702-7876 tons, SO2 emission 9-13 thousand tons, NOx emission 82.7-95.2 thousand tons and PM10 emission 65.2-75.4 thousand tons.