Analysis Of Jilin Province's Long-Term Energy Consumption And Carbon Emission Based On LEAP Model

With the rapid development of economy and unceasing enhancement of human consumption level,lead to the demand for energy is increasing,thus increased the global emissions of greenhouse gases,such as CO2.At present,the effects of climate change have caused the attention of the world.Climate change on the impact of the economic development of human society and the ecological environment system will be long-term and substantial.If not strong relevant control measures are taken,the effect will be aggravated year by year,eventually leading to ecological system crash.To save energy and reduce carbon emissions,this would be in the interests of human beings,is also the responsibility of human beings.China as a developing country,its carbon dioxide emissions has surpassed the United States,became the largest country in the carbon dioxide emissions.As well as carbon dioxide emissions are one of the fastest growth rates.Our country is facing great pressure for huge energy consumption and environmental emissions in the world.Huge energy consumption and environmental emissions seriously affected the development of economy in our country.China is bound to low carbon development road,when in face of the increasingly excessive consumption of energy,environmental emissions,ecological environment more and more serious.But due to the developed economy is less in our country.There is still a gap the for economic output per capita and carbon emissions per capita compared with developed countries,so developing the economy and improving people's living standards will also be the urgent demand of our country.It will be a long process to reverse the trend of the energy consumption and carbon emissions increasing year by year in China.CO2 emissions related to energy consumption are rising year by year in Jilin province as the northeast old industrial.Faced with the serious situation,the development of energy saving low carbon road is inevitable to Jilin province.In this paper,the Jilin province as the research objects.Study of Jilin province long-term energy consumption and carbon emissions.Combined with the condition of economic development and the condition of energy consumption and carbon emissions in Jilin province from 2000 to 2015.Using of LEAP model to analysis of energy consumption and CO2 emissions of Jilin province in 2015-2050 on Baseline Scenario,Development Scenario and Strong Control Emission Scenario.According to the situation forecast results,put forward measures to suit Jilin carbon reduction targets.The results of the study: without taking related policies and measures in accordance with the current inertia for Jilin province on Baseline Scenario,its energy consumption and carbon emissions will continue to rise,eventually lead to the ecological environment can't afford to;Taking the related control countermeasures to achieve energy conservation and emissions reduction on Development Scenario and Strong Control Emission Scenario.Jilin province has completed the national goal of carbon emissions to peak in 2030.At the same time also complete the goal of unit of gross domestic product in 2030 CO2 emissions by 60% to 65% lower than in 2005.Although carbon dioxide emissions peak is lower Strong Control Emission Scenarios,and unit of gross domestic product in 2030 CO2 emissions decreased by 77% than in 2005,belongs to overfulfil.But this situation not only seriously reduce the Jilin province industrial development,and requires high level of technology,controlling of population,less effect on the two-child policy and the increase of all the residents' awareness of low carbon.Synthetically considering,it is the most scientific and reasonable to Jilin's carbon emissions to peak in 2030 on Development scenario.Finally according to the results of the analysis put forward measures to suit Jilin carbon reduction targets.