Analysis Of Dalian Industrial Energy Consumption Based On LEAP Model

The development of urbanization and the economy continues to enhance; future demand for energy is all the more intense. Energy issues have significantly affected the sustainable development of cities, such as high-energy consumption, low efficiency and so on. Dalian as the foremost city of Revitalize base of northeast old industry, as well as the economic development of the coastal frontier zone. There will be great energy consumption for industrial development. However, the supply gap to the future progress of Dalian brought tremendous pressure. Therefore, study and establish the appropriate industrial energy model has a very important significance.This thesis analyses the total energy consumption in recent years, the sub-sector energy consumption, the sub-species energy consumption and energy-efficiency status. On this basis, this thesis summarizes the main issues of its development trends, characteristics and the existence of industrial energy consumption. The results provide the actual data support for the LEAP model of Dalian industrial consumption. Secondly, this thesis studies the principal factors affecting the development of the industrial sector, and applied econometrics theoretical economics calculate the industrial added value derived proportion of GDP. The result becomes the principal parameter of the applied model.Conducting research based on the above, this thesis established the LEAP model energy analysis model based on a bottom-up approach, the scenario analysis set out in the baseline scenario, the restructuring scenario, the technological scenario and the development scenario, combine with the data that get from the econometric analysis, established industrial energy LEAP model of Dalian.2012as the base period of Dalian Industrial energy LEAP model to predict the total energy demand to2030in Dalian city industrial, the demand for various industrial sub-sectors and energy breed. The results obtained demonstrate that the model predicts the existence of Dalian industrial energy consumption is still increasing. High-energy consuming industries still account for a large proportion, industrial structure lag, and the energy structure is irrational and other issues. Finally, founded on the analysis and summary, from the security of energy supply, reduce total energy consumption and international and government policy put forward the corresponding policy suggestions in Dalian industrial energy consumption.This thesis took the industry of Dalian for example. It has important significance for different sectors or aspects of other cities or countries in the aspect of energy demand.