Energy And Environment Scenario Analysis For Resident Sector Based On LEAP

With the promotion of the goal to build a well-off society in an all-round way, continuous raising of living standards and the growth of using energy in urban and rural area, the short of energy supply is creasing, at the same time serious environmental problems caused by the consumption of energy resources are also reducing the quality of resident life.In this context, based on the research at home and abroad, through analyzing the application status of domestic and international energy models, using the long-term Energy Alternatives Planning System LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system) software, the urban and rural residents in Henan Province as the study objects, the author established the model of energy and environmental life of residents in Henan Province -Henan LEAP. The study of Henan LEAP model includes resident's all energy consumption in their everyday lives. the main parts of energy consumption are the kitchen, hot water, heating, air conditioning, lighting household appliances consumption and so on. In order to fully reflect significant differences between the city residents and rural residents in the structure and level of energy consumption, in this article, the author descripts and analyzes the energy consumption in urban and rural area respectively, and calculated and analyzed. Statistics of Henan Province and the classification of living energy characteristics, the study using 2005 as base year, from the perspective of end-use energy analysis, life can be divided with the lighting, cooking, hot water, heating, air conditioning, household appliances 6 parts. Model-driven factors, including economic growth, population size, urbanization, the number of such families. Study the growth of energy demand to ensure residents living under the premise of a "bottom-up" econometric approach, combined with a variety of life, energy intensity and environmental impact factors database (TED), comparative analysis of different scenarios in Henan Province in 2005-2030 Residents living in the environmental impact, with energy demand. Use the model to simulate three different scenarios of life of residents in energy demand in the years 2005-2030, and environmental impacts. Simulation results show that: the implementation of policies and technologies to promote the degree of intensity of energy demand and use can have a greater impact on the structure, three different situations of the greatest differences in energy demand has reached 8.5Mtce, and direct consumption of energy by the end of the CO2 produced emissions in three different situations was a downward trend, and terminal direct consumption of energy generated by GWP ( global warming potential) emissions in three different scenarios decreased year by year, from residential energy under the three scenarios emission structure can be seen, most of the emissions decreased when only 0.82% of average annual N2O -3.09% growth rate, the other are -6.72% to 3.09% average annual growth rate declined.View to the adoption of these studies, analysis of energy policy for the living, explore the ways and measures energy provides a theoretical research base for the development of regional energy development policy in Henan Province and energy to provide the theoretical basis for early warning.