Research On The Evolution Of Emergency Management Knowledge System

With the social and economical development, the functional systems of society have become more and more connected as a complex giant system in period of transition of China. As social problems gradually accumulate, all kinds of emergencies have happened frequently. From the viewpoint of knowledge, the knowledge of the emergent apartments intermingles and becomes a big knowledge system with complementary knowledge sources. It has theoretical and realistic significance in promoting the study of emergency knowledge management and advancing the level of emergency management performance if we do more research in knowledge of emergency management, structure of system and evolution of system. Therefore, the paper constructs the architecture of emergency management knowledge system(EMKS) and does further research in the evolutions of emergency management knowledge system from the point of view of system science.Firstly, the paper defines the concept of EMKS and the components of it on the basis of the theories of knowledge system and knowledge management. Then, the paper points out that knowledge subsystem, knowledge agent subsystem and material carrier subsystem form the architecture of EMKS and meanwhile, analyses the process of emergency knowledge in the operational structure of EMKS. The paper analyses the characteristic of EMKS like complex adaptive system and the function of EMKS.These studies have provided the theoretical support for the evolution of EMKS further.Secondly, the paper analyses the mechanism of evolution of EMKS from the aspect of dynamical factors, process of evolution and emergences of EMKS. The paper defines internal dynamical factors and external dynamical factors and reveals the relationship of these factors. The paper analyses the process of evolution, constructs the model of evolution and analyses the bifurcation and catastrophe of EMKS by applying the theory of self-organization. And, the paper analyses the emergence of EMKS and three levels of it.Next, the paper makes an empirical analysis of internal dynamical factors of evolution. Based on the architecture of EMKS, the paper finds out the internal influence factors of system dynamic evolution and constructs the conceptual model about the dynamical factors and system performance. Proposing the hypothesis, the paper applies the method of structural equation model the model to verify the assumptions after questionnaire survey and data analysis. Then the article reveals that emergency knowledge matching degree, emergency management organization structure and the level of knowledge management technology are the important influencing factors of performance of EMKS. Among all these, knowledge matching degree causes the greatest direct influence on performances of EMKS. The knowledge stock of agents causes the total greatest influence of performances of EMKS.Then, the paper constructs system dynamics model of evolution of EMKS from the view of system operation. The paper builds a three-dimensioned system including two emergency action agents and one decision agent. Then the paper defines the boundary of system including knowledge cooperation subsystem between two emergency action agents, knowledge supply-demand subsystem between action agent and decision agent, knowledge decision subsystem. Taking the knowledge stock of agents as a point of penetration and internal dynamical factors as functional factors, the paper builds the system dynamic model and uses Vensim PLE software to simulate the evolution process of EMKS. The paper shows the evolution process and tendency of EMKS by means of dynamic simulation.Finally, the paper analyses the stage and path of evolution dynamical factors of public health emergencies management knowledge system with the case of emergent event of public health. According to the practice of emergency management in China, the paper proposes some methods to promote the performance of emergency management knowledge system. The paper has practical significance in advancing the level of our country’s performance of emergency management.