Method Of Key Element Recognition For Emergency Evolution Control

In recent years, kinds of emergencies have occurred frequently. And with the advance of social globalization, it spreads in a domino-like manner bring about enormous economic losses and impact to society. The situation has exacerbated a long-standing conflict between large scale incident and resource constraints emergency management, and caused wide public concern. According to the results of major emergency responses, the response activities were unhindered by time and space and not having the desired effect. As a consequence, how to implement effective emergency responses and reduces the threat and damage from an emergency incident are urgent core issue that should be resolved.The occurrence of emergency always accompanies a larger number of event information. If we can properly integrate emergency incident information and emergency disposal information to achieve targeted use of limited resources, which will effectively improve the effect of emergency disposal. Based on this viewpoint, this paper present a method to recognize key elements in process of controlling emergency evolution for emergency disposal to identify the entities that can restore a serious impact with smaller cost by controlling it, which will improve the efficiency of emergency disposal and make emergency disposal more targeted. Firstly, giving a definition of key elements of emergency evolution process control based on the in-depth analysis of emergency disposal purpose. Secondly, on the basis of knowledge element theory, the emergency evolution network model with time structure embedding in will be constructed taking the spatiotemporal property of emergency evolution into consideration from the angle of systematic theory. Then, the trend of emergency evolution can be deducted based on the Bayes Theory focusing on the structural traits of emergency evolution delay network. Thirdly, the possible loss in emergency evolution process will be assessed by applying the risk entropy and combining the entity value information. Then on this basis and with the cost analysis of controlling the emergency activities, we introduced the measurement methods of entity controllability to acquire the identification of the key factors and comprehensive evaluation in the process of controlling emergency evolution. At last, taking the typhoon "Vicente" in Zhuhai as the example, apply the method proposed in this paper to identify the key factors in the typhoon evolution process to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method.Aiming at the emergency control, this paper researches the key element recognition for emergency evolution control. The work in this paper is of significance for emergency deduction and decision-making. Emergency evolution time-delay network based on the knowledge primitive model, realizes the real-time deduction and microscopic of emergency, and make emergency decision-making clearer. The key elements which integrate emergency information and demand information, make the implementation of the emergency control measures more targeted, and improve the efficiency of emergency response.