| The YunQi theory of heavenly stems and earthly branches is a theory of the ancient Chinese study variations of climate, and climate change on biological effects. Its important content is that the natural climate has the existence of periodic variation of60years, this law according to the periodic heavenly stems and earthly branches Jia Zi presentation, using method of heavenly stems and earthly branches consistent, can be speculated that the law of climate change. But the change of heavenly stems and earthly branches and actual climate agreement how, the researchers have different opinions, the modern lack of systematic study on this issue, which is the key to judge the doctrine of science or not.1. Research objective:Using meteorological data of60years in Beijing area, verify correlation of the heavenly stems and earthly branches, ZhuYun and Keyun, ZhuQi and KeQi, YunQi consistency etc,five deduction model and actual climate changes in60years, aims to explore the scientific theory of YunQi theory.2. Meteorological data and research methods:2.1Meteorological data:The meteorological data provided by Beijing meteorological observatory station in Beijing area in February5,1948(the beginning day of spring) to February3,2008(the last day of the big chill), a total of60years of21914days of daily average temperature, daily average precipitation, daily average wind speed, daily average vapor pressure, daily average relative humidity and daily average low cloud cover etc,six kinds of meteorological data in131,484data, data records are true and complete. In this study, each year is the beginning day of spring. 2.2The heavenly stems Ji Yun law:The ten heavenly stems, five movements,"more and less" five groups of three models of60years are ovested in the category. Statistical test and analysis three kinds of six meteorological data for qualitative, quantitative and period, obtain the results.2.3The earthly branches Ji Qi law:The six QI category of60years were divided into six groups, each group of SiTian (the first half of the year) and ZaiQuan (the second half of the year) value of two periods of six meteorological factors, Statistical test and analysis two kinds of six meteorological data for qualitative, quantitative and period, obtain the results.2.4ZhuYun and Keyun model:Every year of60years is divided into five periods, each period is divided into ZhuYun and Keyun, to deduce the climatic conditions of each period and compared with the actual climate, calculated coincidence rate of each year.2.5ZhuQi and KeQi model:Every year of60years is divided into six periods, each period is divided into ZhuQi and KeQi, to deduce the climatic conditions of each period and compared with the actual climate, calculated coincidence rate of each year.2.6YunQi consistency model:All60years is divided into YunQi assimilation26years, YunQi alienation34years; two groups each year divided into SuiYun (all year), SiTian (the first half of the year) and ZaiQuan (the second half of the year) three periods, to deduce the climatic conditions of each period and compared with the actual climate, calculated coincidence rate of each year.2.7Four grades of the coincidence rate:According to the different coincidence rate of three modes of60years is divided into four grades, such as the coincidence rate of90%-100%is full coincidence, with the60%89%as the basic coincidence,30%～59%for partial coincidence,0%～29%which does not coincidence.2.8Statistical analysis:Based on the above statistical methods, statistical analysis using SPSS-17.0statistical software. Statistical methods are nonparametric test of multiple independent samples Kruskal-Wallis H method, the LSD variance analysis method, spectral analysis of the Tukey-Hamming method, and the chi-square test (Fisher exact method and Persons chi-square), two groups of rank data nonparametric test (Mann-Whitney U method).3Statistical results3.1The Heavenly Ji Yun law and The earthly branches Ji Qi law:The properties of the ten heavenly stems, five movements,"more and less" five groups and the earthly branches JiQi and actual climate change wind, cold, heat, dry, wet properties is consistent, coincide with different years of actual climate changes in the overall trend is consistent. five movements are the best anastomosis, follows the ten heavenly stems and the earthly branches Ji Qi,"more and less" five groups is worst.The meteorological data of60years change cycle with the ten heavenly stems, five movements and of the earthly branches SixQi cycle is clearly consistent, co-exist with5years,6years,10years,12years,15years,20years,30years periodic cycle.According to the ten heavenly stems, five movements,"more and less" five groups, the earthly branches SixQi calculation mode, temperature, precipitation, wind speed, vapor pressure, relative humidity and low cloud cover etc,six meteorological data after statistical analysis, the differences were not statistically significant. May be related to computing time period of only60years, the relative lack of meteorological data have a certain relationship.3.2ZhuYun and Keyun model:ZhuYun and Keyun model of60years and actual climate change in the overall coincidence rate is48.2%.60years four grades of coincidence years, with full coincidence years is0years, basic coincidence is22years, partial coincidence is33years, not coincidence is5years.3.3ZhuQi and KeQi model: ZhuQi and KeQi model of60years and actual climate change in the overall coincidence rate is48.6%.60years four grades of coincidence years, with full coincidence years is0years, basic coincidence years is10years, partial coincidence years is48years, not coincidence years is2years.3.4YunQi consistency model:YunQi consistency model of60years and actual climate change in the overall consistent rate is56%.The four grades of coincidence years of60years, full coincidence years is12years, basic coincidence years is21years, partial coincidence years is23years, not coincidence years is4years.YunQi assimilation26years and YunQi alienation34years:YunQi assimilation26years, full coincidence years is10years, basic coincidence years is7years, partial coincidence years is7years, not coincidence years2years.YunQi alienation34years, with full coincidence years is2years, basic coincidence years is14years, partial coincidence years is16years, not coincidence years2years.The number of coincidence years of two groups of four grades of coincidence rate are significant difference (P<0.05).YunQi assimilation26years of full coincidence years is10years, basic coincidence years is7years, taken together17years, accounting for65%of YunQi assimilation26years. This is different from YunQi alienation34years, there are significant difference between two groups. Thus, YunQi assimilation26years are consistent with the actual climate change3.5Statistical comparison of three models:The difference coincidence years of four grades of three modes, is statistically significant difference (P<0.01); YunQi consistency model are compared with ZhuYun and Keyun model or ZhuQi and KeQi model, the difference is statistically significant (P<0.01); compared with ZhuYun and Keyun model and ZhuQi and KeQi model, the difference was not statistically significant (P>0.01). With YunQi consistency of60years, full coincidence years is12years, basic coincidence is21years, taken together33years, accounting for65%of YunQi consistency. This is different from the other group, statistically significant differences between the two. Thus, YunQi consistency model and the actual climate change is consistent, the prediction of future climate change and disease development, early warning and Popular has certain guiding significance and reference value.4ConclusionFirst, the change cycle of six meteorological data of60years and the ten heavenly stems, five movements,"more and less" five groups and the earthly branches SixQi is clearly consistent, there are5years,6years,10years,12years,15years,20years,30years cycle.Second, the ten heavenly stems, five movements,"more and less" five groups and the earthly branches SixQi and actual climate change wind, cold, heat, dry, wet properties is consistent, coincide with different years of actual climate changes in the overall trend is consistent.Third, YunQi consistency model and actual climate change agreement is more consistent. In the actual climate change projections application, should be based on YunQi consistency model as the core, supplemented by ZhuYun and Keyun model and ZhuQi and KeQi model5. The innovation of this research:First, for the first time in the meteorological data based on60years in Beijing area,, using rigorous mathematical statistical methods, systematic research and analysis are made on YunQi theory of heavenly stems and earthly branches and the actual climate change.Second, YunQi consistency model and actual climate change agreement is more consistent. In the actual climate change projections application, should be based on YunQi consistency model as the core, supplemented by ZhuYun and Keyun model and ZhuQi and KeQi model... |
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