| Experienced project managers are increasingly aware that uncertainty exists in any project and it may bring a risk at any time anywhere, therefore the impact of risk on the project can not be ignored. With the continuous expansion of the scale of modern construction enterprises, the phenomenon that an enterprise manages simultaneously multiple projects is common, then the multi-project management is necessary, however it also brings more risks caused by intensely scheduling of resources and demand for accurate start-stop of duration when the multi-project management brings more profits to the enterprises. No matter how mature the plan is and how strict the management is, the risk still occurs unexpectedly, and that the risk that originally exists in a certain project can impact the other projects due to multi-project construction and multi-project management. If risk can not be controlled early on, it can be transmitted to next project just like dominoes. For exploring and revealing this phenomenon of risks chain reaction, risk element transmission theory comes into being. The dissertstion applies the risk element transmission theory into construction projects to systematically and dynamically evaluate effect of risk transfer and discover path of risk transfer within a single project and between multiple projects, then design methods of risk aversion, and based on the theory and methods to build information system of risk management for construction projects so as to provide risk management decision-making information. The main research work of this paper includes the following aspects:(1) The research on the theory of project chain feedback type risk element transfer. First multi-project and its related concepts are analyzed thoroughly; on the basis of this, the concept of chain project is proposed and the project chain diagrams and mathematical definition are given; then the risk element transmission theory is summarized, and the feedback type transmission path of risk element which reveals a second kind of objective phenomenon of risk element transmission is put forward; finally the boundaries and scope of the study of the multi-project risk element transmission are determined.(2) The research on the feedback type risk element transfer on duration chain of the multi-project. First of all, the concept of the duration chain is given according to the definition of the project and the existence of project duration chain is described, the duration feedback type transfer of single project is analyzed and a SD model on duration feedback type risk element transmission of single project is established; next the multi-project duration chain feedback type risk element transmission model is built through single project research; finally, the evaluation methods of project importance are presented by the application of trapezoidal fuzzy number theory and the generated effect of model in the condition of different times and different risks is simulated and analysed.(3) The research on the feedback type transfer on resource chain of multi-project. In the condition of enterprise resource constrained, taking the human resources as the research object to analyze feedback type transfer on resource chain of multi-project;using system dynamics, formal contexts and concept lattice, cellular automata and AHP theory and method to model and simulate the resource chain feedback type risk element transmission of single project and multi-project.(4) The research on risk aversion and risk control on project chain. Based on the project chain theory, taking Qinghai-Tibet power grid interconnection project as an example, by using triangular fuzzy number and the matter element extension model, the project risk assessment model is given; the most effective method that control and avoid multi-project risk transfer phenomenon is optimization allocation of project resources, using intelligent optimization algorithm to study resources scheduling problem and resource leveling problem of resource constrained projects.(5) The research on risk management information system of construction project. Based on the theory of project chain risk element feedback type transmission,by introducing the theory and the established model into the practical software system, the risk management information system of construction project is designed and implemented; the design principle and framework of system design are put forward, and the key technologies involved in the process of system development are analyzed. |
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