Research Of Power Transmission And Transformation Projects' Schedule Risk Evaluation Based On Improved Risk Chain

Nowadays,in the globalization and the era of rapid economic development,the power industry as the basis of economic development has become about the pillar industry of national economy,and provides important guarantee for people's daily life.At present,the rapid development of electric power construction enterprise in our country, power transmission and transformation project as an important part of power engineering project,is directly related to the development of national economy and people's daily life. The characteristic of power transmission and transformation project is a large investment,a long construction period and technological complexity.Construction of power transmission project have high hazard.Once the power transmission and transformation construction projects is not completed in accordance with the anticipated goal,not only can make the cost more than expected,can also lead to failure of the entire project.Therefore,the study of power transmission and transformation project and risk control has become increasingly attention of the electric power industry.This article first to the basic concept of risk chain and the common methods of power transmission and transformation project schedule risk evaluation carried on the detailed elaboration,for later construction of power transmission and transformation project schedule risk evaluation model of foreshadowing. Secondly, according to the characteristics of the power transmission and transformation projects, refined power transmission and transformation project schedule risk and reliability and validity inspection, establishes the schedule risk evaluation index. Then, through expert evaluation method will determine the schedule risk indicators to establish a link between the risk of network, using the basic knowledge of system engineering theory to risk related network segmentation, and got the article number of the independent risk chain, then according to the current relevant risk evaluation model of chain was improved, considering the relationship between the risk and the risk and the influence of the logical relationship between processes, proposed to improve the simulation algorithm of the model. Finally, through a specific case, power transmission and transformation project will be the improved evaluation model of the schedule risk evaluation of the case, by choosing data and relevant calculation, analysis of the results, thus put forward according to the project schedule risk measures and methods to cope with the situation, to verify the practicability and feasibility of research ideas in this paper.The conductivity of risk chain is paid attention to by the people day by day, especially based on risk management theory and method research of risk chain will become an important part of enterprise management,and may become the forefront of risk management theory research.Therefore,according to the basic properties and characteristics of risk chain in this paper,in power transmission and transformation project schedule risk as the research object,from the angle of the association between the risk,for the first time the concept of risk chain is introduced into the research of power transmission and transformation project schedule risk.Through the power transmission and transformation project schedule risk evaluation,so as to analyze that may occur in the process of construction of power transmission and transformation project potential influencing factors,to further combining with the actual situation work plan and put forward coping measures has realistic meaning.