Reasearch On Wind Power Construction Project Risk Elements Transmission And Decision-making Model As Well As Simulation System

Large-scale development and utilization of wind energy had brought unprecedented opportunities for wind power enterprises and effectively alleviated the basic problems of power structure in China. However, it had brought unknown risks to wind power generation enterprise. The risk of wind power construction project was an important factor to restrict the development of wind power industry in China at present. Currently, wind power enterprises in China was still lack of mature risk analysis and risk management to implement effective guidance in wind power construction project. Thus, it is urgent to develop risk analysis, risk transfer and simulation system research for solving the problem of wind power construction project and also a necessary condition for the healthy development of China’s wind power industry.Based on the risk element transmission theory, this paper takes the wind power construction project as the research content and starts from the risk element transmission mode of the main business in projects. By building the wind power construction project relationship model, the hierarchical model, the feedback model and the risk decision model, and designing the risk element transmission simulation system of the wind power construction project, this paper studied the application and practice of risk element transfer in wind power construction project and get the effect of the wind power construction project risk management on the whole.Risk management of wind power construction project was analyzed by the relationship type.The method of determining the probability distribution and correlation of risk elements was given. The investment planning stage of wind power construction project was analyzed. Setting up the risk element transmission model of investment planning by risk identification, probability estimation of risk element, risk element analysis and risk transfer calculation of project target. Finally, the wind energy resources in three typical areas were analyzed. Besides, the trend characteristics and cycle characteristics of wind energy resources are summarized. On the basis of considering the change of wind energy, the economic evaluation risk element transmission model of wind power construction project and the simulation research was building.Risk management of wind power construction project was analyzed by the relationship type. For the resource assessment problem of wind power construction project investment planning stage, the selection risk of parameters and the evaluation techniques of wind farm wind resources in different regions, a more complete and reasonable risk assessment index system of resource assessment was put forward in wind power construction project investment planning stage. On the basis of the definition of hierarchical risk element transfer, the three stages of resource evaluation, social evaluation and construction process were evaluated by the analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and grey hierarchy evaluation model. The example analysis has proved the validity of the model.Risk management of wind power construction project was analyzed from the angle of risk decision. The basic positive and negative feedback type risk element was defined, and the general theoretical model of the feedback type risk element transmission was introduced. Aiming at the operation stage of the wind power construction project, a feedback type risk element transfer model based on the dynamic model of the system was established. Through the simulation case, the policy risk and technical risk in the operation stage of the wind power construction project were analyzed. Based on complex network theory, the model of operational stage feedback type risk element transfer model was established, and the influence of wind power grid connected to the grid and the feedback effect of power grid to the wind power station were analyzed.Risk management of wind power construction project was analyzed by the hierarchical type.The risk decision content of each construction stage of wind power construction project was introduced, and the whole life cycle risk decision theory system was built. Several traditional risk based decision models and the application of risk based decision making in wind power construction project was introduced. According to the investment planning stage and feasibility stage, the risk system of wind power construction project investment planning stage was sorted out and identified, and a model was established to make decision analysis.The whole system was analyzed in detail from data processing requirements, wind power construction project information management needs, risk element transmission simulation decision-making needs, input and output requirements and other aspects; Based on multi Agent, the interactive technology of risk element transfer simulation data was studied. The system design of risk element transfer simulation system of wind power construction project was carried out, and the overall framework of the system was designed with the core of risk element transfer model library. Finally, the simulation system was realized, and the key modules of the system were introduced.