A Study On Earthquake Emergency Radiation Capacity

In order to ensure emergency command and relief work, it is necessary to greatly strengthen preparedness, such as construction of emergency shelters, earthquake drills, and improving the operability of earthquake emergency plans, to strengthen the construction of earthquake emergency rescue teams and relief supplies reserves. Through such effort, the earthquake emergency preparedness can be enhanced. If the country builds earthquake emergency preparedness based on the seismic risk of average level, the costs will exceed the capacity of local governments in many regions. Meanwhile, earthquakes are events of small probabilities. So it is inefficient to have a self-sufficient emergency preparedness. Therefore, in the process of strengthening emergency preparedness, it should be taken into account the actual support of the surroundings and other regions of the country in the future, which is named the capability of earthquake emergency radiation. This thesis focuses on the study about this issue.This thesis presents the concept of earthquake emergency radiation capacity, establishes its model, and calculates numerical examples in Yunnan Province. It uses a variety of research methods, including practical investigation, statistics, and combined qualitative and quantitative analyses. With these approaches, this work examines earthquake emergency preparedness and relief work deeply, elucidates the concept of emergency radiation, determines priority of the earthquake emergency radiation, and analyzes the influencing factors for this capability. At last, it constructs an earthquake emergency radiation model and disaster relief requirements model. The primary contents in this thesis are summarized below.Firstly, this work conducted investigations to earthquake emergency preparedness in a number of provinces, cities and counties. It is found that the disaster preparedness capacity of our country has been greatly enhanced compared to that before the 2008 Wenchuan great quake. It is manifested as the enhanced operability in emergency response plan scenarios for destructive earthquakes, progressive improvement of the emergency shelter facilities, strengthened reserves construction of emergency supplies in national and provincial levels, increased emergency communications equipment in cities and counties and some seismological bureaus, strengthened emergency drills and training all over the country. Meanwhile, the actions of rescue in post-earthquake emergency become more scientific, orderly and effective. The information dissemination and plans are more quick and timely. The deployment of rescue forces is more efficient and reasonable. The control of traffic more timely, rigorous and orderly. The distribution of relief supplies is more fair and orderly.Secondly, this study proposes the concept of seismic emergency preparedness capability, which is divided into the absolute and relative ones. This work also proposes the concept of earthquake emergency radiation ability based on study of economic radiation capability, earthquake emergency radiation refers earthquake around the county, city and other parts of the country in a certain period of time can be provided to the human, material, financial and other comprehensive disaster rescue capability. Summed up the characteristics of earthquake emergency and radiation capability, it suggests priorities for different degrees of disasters.Thirdly, this study summarizes four factors that affect earthquake emergency radiation capacity, i.e. the resources that can be transported to the disaster areas, radiation time, the influence of the attenuation of relief efficacy and the influence of the traffic conditions.It discusses the radiation of rescuers, relief supplies and relief funds; analyzes the influencing factors irradiation time, establishes irradiation time model and calculates irradiation time; summarizes the earthquake save curve, proposes attenuation law relief efficacy curve based on the time distance; establishes earthquake emergency radiation transport advantages of the model using transportation network density, proximity, location advantage.Fourthly, in combination with spatial interaction theory, this work establishes a single-factor radiation model and an integrated earthquake emergency radiation model. At the same time, based on the comprehensive analysis of data about multiple quake cases, this work established the disaster relief requirement models of earthquake professional rescue teams, medical teams and tents.Finally, taking Yunnan Province for an example, this study adopts the single-factor model and integrated earthquake emergency radiation model to calculate the total rescue personnel and relief supplies from surroundings to target counties (districts) through road transportation and integrated rescue capabilities within 6 hours. The results show that 26.4% of the county (district) cannot get any of the rescue personnel and relief supplies coming from surroundings through road transportation within 6 hours,45.6% of the county (district) can receive rescue personnel and relief supplies from 1-7 counties (districts) of within 6 hours,28% the county (district) can obtain rescue personnel and relief supplies from eight counties (districts) or more surroundings within 6 hours. The areas with strongest comprehensive radiation capacity are concentrated in Kunming, Chuxiong, Dali, and Qujing urban periphery. Using earthquake disaster loss assessment software, this work attempts to simulate earthquakes of different magnitude. Through the disaster relief requirements model, this work calculates relief needs of the target counties (districts) in the simulated earthquake disaster area. According to the disaster relief personnel and relief materials of target counties (districts), combined with the surrounding radiation results, this work analyzes how many rescue workers and disaster relief supplies are required in the target counties (districts) in the simulated affected region. The radiation effects of medical, tents, firefighters were studied on national scale. The results showed the radiation capacity in eastern region was stronger than that in western region. After radiation, the most obvious changes in the number of doctors, firefighters and tents demand is located at the eastern region. The eastern region which were non-compliance of the county are up to standard after radiation, and the western region did not change significantly.