Researches On Timing Of Aggregate Merger Activities For Chinese Public Companies

Researches on timing of aggregate merger activities for Chinese public companies and its influencing factors are of great importance, which can not only help test all kinds of hypothesis achieved, but help understand and grasp the trend of aggregate merger activities for Chinese public companies and provide valuable references for management decisions and regulation policies. Yet the subject about timing of merger activities and reasons why merger waves happen is one of the ten difficulties that remain unsolved in financial economics (Brealey and Meyers,1981). Such researches in China is very scarce, the research achievements available can not provide us with thorough comprehension of timing of aggregate merger activities for Chinese public companies and its influencing factors. So the thesis studies the timing of aggregate merger activities for Chinese public companies, including the test of merger wave hypothesis and researches on merger cycle asymmetry, relation between merger cycles and business cycles, relation between aggregate merger activities and financial variables, and the causes of merger waves.Some findings, as part of results for researching in this period, are listed below: (1) There are several humps and fat tails in merger data series. Markov-switching models with three states can depict aggregate merger activities in China correctly, merger waves come into existence, and merger activities are cyclical. (2) Merger cycles are asymmetric in sharpness and steepness, whose rise is steep and fall is slow. Yet there is no asymmetry in deepness. At the same time, merger cycles are asymmetric in violability, that is, violability is highest at the beginning of merger waves, violability at the end of merger waves takes second place, while at normal times the violability is lowest. (3) The relation...