Appraisal And Forecast Of Cultivated Land Pressure In Jiaozuo City

Cultivated land resources is the most important foundation for living of human being,which is irreplaceable functions for sustaiuable development agriculture industry and national economy . Per capita cultivated land resource of Jiaozuo city faces shortage. With the increase in population, fast growing of economy,non-agricultural land increasing continuously, the pressure on cultivated land is becoming weightier and weightier . Current market mechanism drives necessarily cultivated land to move to higher profit-back directions; food safety and sustainable development of economic society will be seriously threadened finally. Therefore,researching on cultivated land has important meaning on strengthening management of cultivated land resource,guaranteeing safety of grains, promoting sustainable utilization of cultivated land resourses and sustainable development of economic society .This article is guided by the scarcity theory of cultivated land resourses,sustainable utilization theory of land,theory of relationship between human being and land,theory of food safety,and is elaborating the meaning of cultivated land pressure. The article analysises characteristics of evaluating module of principal domestic current cultivated land pressure , existing blind part of research ,creats evaluating module for cultivated land by the base of expendeding module of cultivated land index , and uses up mentioned module to estimate level of pressure on cultivated land of Jiaozuo city 1997-2009. In accordance with data in past years in Jiaozuo City, utilizing gray GM (1,1) module to estimate population,quantity of cultivated land ,output of grains in future of Jiaozuo City,estimate future trend of cultivated land index and raise up relevant policies and suggestions.Through the analysis , below conclusions are reached .(1)Utilizing cultivated land pressure module to evaluate cultivated land resource since 1997-2009 Jiaozuo City , the analysis conclusion shows : even though actual value of per capita cultivated land area in Jiaozuo is far lower than that of in Henan province and whole county, besides pressure index was little higher in 2002,2003 , just over warning value, food safety was threatened , other years index of cultivated land pressure were lower than warning line. (2) Binary regression relationship can be found in pressure index of cultivated land in all counties(downtown) of Jiaozuo City and Per capita GDP,the 2nd and 3rd industries,it shows good fitting results and obviously inverted U style curving . With the increase of index of all counties(downtown), the industry structure is increasing as well. But change of economy development shows great disparity.(3) Estimating developing trend of cultivated land in Jiaozuo City, conclusion shows : in the year of 2010-2017 , the pressure index is lower than 1,lower than warning level,which demonstrate that supplying level of cultivated land is higher than food consumption level , cultivated land can guarantee safety of food. But since 2018 , pressure index increasing, mild warning, food safety will be threatened , we should make efforts to protect cultivated land protection , strictly stop unreasonable occupation of cultivated land .