Research On Theory And Methods Of Comprehensive Evaluation For Tianjin Port Development

Focusing on research about theory and methods of comprehensiveevaluation for Tianjin port development, the paper introduces andpresents comprehensive evaluation factors system method, Principalcomponents analysis method, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method,fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, improved neural networks,correlation analysis port throughput prediction method, factors optimizingcomprehensive evaluation method, and etc, to research the theory andmethods on comprehensive evaluation of port development . By the stepsof that, from setting up factors system of comprehensive evaluation forport development, analyzing factors, measuring factors, forecasting keyfactor, evaluating factors, to the studies of comprehensive evaluationmethods. The primary research contents and results are presented asfollows.(1) Setting up factors system of comprehensive evaluation for portdevelopment. After research background and situations about theory andmethods of comprehensive evaluation for Tianjin port development havebeen analyzed, Principles to select factors of comprehensive evaluationfor Tianjin port development are provided, Factors are fixed on,Hierarchy frame chart of factors system of that is drawn according toconception's model and analytic hierarchy method, The factors areanalyzed including their situations and development trend by the numbers;factors measure ways are studied too including factors specificationmethod, factors standardization method and factors unitized method. Forthe qualitative factors and quantitative factors exist together in the system,and fuzzy evaluation standard collections of factors are presented to solvethe problem on factors measure method. It presents a very good basis andway on comprehensive evaluation of Tianjin port development to set upthe factors system and present the factors measure method.(2) A correlative analysis forecasting method of port throughput andimproved BP neural network arithmetic are presented in the paper.Traditional port forecasting methods are analyzed firstly to be comparedbetween their advantages and disadvantages, their applications, limitedconditions and problems have been studied by case research. By theBlack Box theory, one factor, port construction investment, is fixed on asinput sequence of the Black Box, and port throughput is fixed on asoutput sequence of the Black Box too, by the qualitative analysis andcheckout of general error, t checkout of and F checkout of the model,distinct correlation between port construction investment and portthroughput is confirmed, which change a traditional method to depend onport hinterland direct build method of port throughput cause and resultforecasting . According to the Black Box Model, a model of own adaptiveincrement monadic operator linearity regression is presented to crate aport throughput forecast model of time and cause, by the time sequenceforecast method to predict port investment, and the paper studies how tomake use of amendable nerve net method to carry through the factorscorrelation forecast method of port throughput, then a balance researchbetween that way and a predigesting arithmetic method of factorscorrelation forecast method is finished too. It presents a new way forresearch of prediction of Tianjin port throughput, and a new way to studythe relationship between factors of Port comprehensive evaluation.(3) Factors evaluation for Tianjin port development is finished.Basing on Principal components analysis method to evaluate factors,confirm key factors and calculate index of factors evaluation, Whichpresents a new way for factors evaluation of port development.(4) Factors optimizing comprehensive evaluation method ispresented. The method model is set up. Multi-information analysismethods are combined together, according to demands of comprehensiveevaluation of Tianjin Port, a optimizing evaluation sequence is chosen tobe applied in Tianjin port's comprehensive evaluation. This is a kind ofmulti-factors, multi-hiberarchy, multi-routes, multi-objects method,which presents a new effective way for comprehensive evaluation ofPort development.