Study On The Evolution Of Public Opinion On Network Of Unexpected Event

Since the 1990s China has interconnected with network, the network has realized socialization gradually, and it is playing an increasingly important function for public opinions expression and transfer as the fourth media. In process of the occurrence, development and variation of an unexpected event, the public opinion is forming the diffusion situation and blowout effect on account of the coverage of media, the attitude and view of netizens which derived from an unexpected event. With the increasingly differentiated netizens and multiple medium, the evolution of the public opinions of unexpected events is now presenting the characteristics of being uncertain, complex and fluctuant which make it difficult for the public awareness and government guidance of the public opinions.What kind of public opinions will show after the occurrence of unexpected events, and what factors are playing an important role and what tendency and rules the public opinions will present? Focusing on these questions, this paper aims at studying the public opinions on the internet and emphasizes on the evolution of them. By employing the theory of life cycle, this paper divides the evolution of public opinions of unexpected events into four parts, that is, breeding, diffusion, transformation and attenuation and every part will be discussed in details.This paper analyzes the birth of the public opinion from the indirect aspects like the network, the netizens, and the media and from the direct aspects like the loss of information, the misconduct ruling and so on. It constructs a simplified model of the motivation and methods of the factors of the birth about network public opinion, and studies the "primary actor" such as journalists and citizen journalists and the vector such as the news message boards and forum which are the birthplaces of the public opinion on network. The results show that the public opinion on network can be expressed through text, images, expressions and click records and so on, and point out the randomness, anti-regulatory features of the birth of public opinion.This paper explains the dominant power from aspects like the expression of the interests of netizens, the agenda setting of media, the legitimacy of government and the recessive power from the asymmetric information, and the competition of attention resources. Meanwhile, it points out the vector of public opinion variety and the diffusion path of the public opinion based on typical cases, refining the law of diffusion of the public opinion which involves interact, resonance, inversion and polarization; the corresponding effects are focus, defocus, diffuse, overlay, expansion, and pressure. Afterwards, the model of diffusion of public opinion is constructed from the aspects of government control, guiding strategies and the positive and negative strategy from parties.The public opinion can be changed by the event, the government action, the interest of netizens and the coverage of media. The paper analyses the change of public opinion from forms, class degree, point and relationships and constructs the variables of the change of public opinion and the monitoring scale from the combination of the objectivity and subjectivity.The attenuation of the public opinion includes not only the disappearance of public opinion, but also the replacement and the weakening of the influence. This paper analyses the framework of the attenuation from three levels and nine dimensions and constructs the monitoring mechanism of the attenuation of the public opinion from the aspect of quantity, degree, efficiency and transmission. The conditions of the attenuation of public opinion are revolved into the reduction of the source of the attenuation, the narrowing of the channel, the disappearing of subject matter of the public opinion. This passage analyzes both the significance and problems of the attenuation of the public opinion from positive and negative aspects.This paper focuses on the motive and the strategy of the leader who stimulates the evolution of public opinion based on the careful explanation of various stages'evolution of public opinion. In terms of the analysis mode of extracting factors and simulating the relations, constructing the models of the leader's motive and strategy, therefore we can understand how and why the public opinion is evolving from the overall angles.This paper analyses the complex phenomenon, fluctuant evolution, and the "process map" which describe the generality and abstraction of the evolution of public opinion. Focusing on the particular unexpected event, the monitoring techniques of the evolution of public opinion, or rematch the key words of "unexpected event" and "public opinion on network", then we can find that the study of public opinion on emergencies shoulders heavy responsibilities.