| Land comprehensive carrying capacity is a scientific concept and tool to measure the relationship between human economics, social activities and land resources. It is a basis for scientific preparation and implementation of the land planning. At present, the national overall land development layout has been basically formed. With the rapid progress of industrialization and urbanization, the land development pattern needs to be further optimized. Applying the land comprehensive carrying capacity into the study of the land development spatial pattern, it provides new ideas for spatial pattern optimization of land development from the angle of rational development and utilization of land resources. Furthermore, constantly improvement of the evaluation theories and methods of land comprehensive carrying capacity provides a feasibility to be applied to land development spatial optimization.Hubei Province locates in the hinterland of central China, surrounded by mountains in east, west and north. Its central is flat, and the terrain rises gradually from south central to the surrounding mountains. It has subtropical monsoon climate, good light and heat conditions, abundant rainfall, and rich in natural resources. It’s known that Hubei Province is one of the major grain-producing provinces in China, and has a very important role in the protection of national ecological security. In the rapid process of industrialization and urbanization, social and economic development of Hubei shows growing demand for land resources, and urban construction occupies cultivated land increasingly day by day. The disorder phenomenon of land development is serious, as well as the layout construction land. Meanwhile, the environmental pollution problems caused by industrialization development are severe. With the status of Hubei Province in the national spatial strategy are rising gradually, we urgently need to know well of the situation of and resources carrying capacity, optimize the land development spatial pattern, coordinate the relationship between land use and social economic development, and promote the sustainable development of Hubei Province.Literature review analysis showed that, with the in-depth study of man-land relationship, the connotation and extension of land comprehensive carrying capacity are expanded and consummated constantly, and the evaluation methods of land comprehensive carrying capacity are also in constant improvement. But there is still a lack of systematic theoretical support for the land comprehensive carrying capacity research. The evaluation results of carrying capacity also show poor guidance to land use decisions. Currently, the research methods in land use quantity structure optimization and small-scale land use spatial optimization are more mature. However, the research on large-scale land development spatial optimization is relatively weak and need to improve. Given all that, the evaluation results of land comprehensive carrying capacity can be used to optimize land development spatial pattern. It can contribute to strengthen the dominant function of land use in different regional units, and reduce the damage of land use to ecological environment. It also can help to enhance regional sustainable development capacity, and promote regional balanced and coordinated development. Therefore, this paper applies the land comprehensive carrying capacity into the optimization of the land development spatial pattern, and forms the theoretical and empirical studies. The results of the study are as follows:(1) The land comprehensive carrying capacity evaluation modelBased on domestic and foreign literature review, the land comprehensive carrying capacity concept, research connotation and impact factors were analyzed. It was thought that the factors affecting the land comprehensive carrying capacity were main divided into two categories: natural factors and social economic factors. By means of biological immunology principle and on the basis of the concept of sustainable development, this reseach put forward the theoretical model for the land comprehensive carrying capacity "background, status, potential" hierarchical evaluation. According to the hierarchical effect of the land resources carrying, the econometric model for the land comprehensive carrying capacity evaluation was builded. In other words, the land comprehensive carrying capacity could be calculated through the function relationship between the basic supporting capacities of natural ecosystem system, the carrying capacity for the the current scale of social economy development, and the potential earring capacity through science and technology progress.(2) The relationship between the land comprehensive carrying capacity and the land development spatial optimizationLand comprehensive carrying capacity is the basic measure of regional sustainable land use. Land development and utilization should be carried out within a reasonable range of land comprehensive carrying capacity. The land development space pattern refers to the characteristics of land use function, land development intensity and land development organization in geographical units at a fixed time point. It was said that the most reasonable spatial development layout helps to increase the land resource utilization efficiency, and promote balanced development between regions. Therefore, the land comprehensive carrying capacity was used to be a basis for land development spatial optimization, while the land development spatial optimization adjustment could further enhance the land comprehensive carrying capacity. And that neither could exist effectively without the other.(3) The framework design of land development spatial optimization on the basis of the land comprehensive carrying capacity evaluationDesign the framework of land development spatial optimization based on the land comprehensive carrying capacity evaluation. That is to say, using the results of status carrying capacity evaluation to carry out the functional zoning of land use, and using evaluation results of the background carrying capacity, status carrying capacity and potential carrying capacity to carry out the partition of land use development. And on the basis of the above partition results, build the correlation matrix of "function-development" partition to carry on the comprehensive land use zoning, in order to obtain the spatial optimization scheme of land development.(4) The land comprehensive carrying capacity evaluation in Hubei ProvinceAccording to the theory model of land comprehensive carrying capacity evaluation, a total of 31 indicators were selected. And the indicator weight can be determined by the analytic hierarchy process (ahp) and entropy value method. According to econometric model of the land comprehensive carrying capacity evaluation, the county land carryring capacity in Hubei Province can be calculated. The spatial distribution of each evaluation indicator and index in different levels were analyzed. Evaluation results showed that, from the aspect of backgroud carrying capacity index, the county of Shiyan, Yichang, Suizhou, Xiaogan were on the low level, while counties in the city of Jingzhou, Xianning, Jingmen were higher. From the aspect of status carrying capacity index, the municipal districts in Wuhan and Yichang, with its surrounding counties were the high value distributions, while most of the county in Enshi, Huanggang, Jingzhou and Shiyan were the low value areas, owning to the natural ecological influencing factors and lower momentum of land development and utilization. From the point of potential carrying capacity index, the high value area concentrated in city of Shiyan, Xiangyang and Yichang. From the view of land comprehensive carrying capacity index, most counties in plain area is of the high value area, while counties in the mountious areas in western Hubei and the downland areas in north Hubei are relatively low.(5) The differentiation in space characteristics of the land comprehensive carrying capacityThe mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, center of gravity, the radial distance and other descriptive statistic analysis indicators were used to analysis the differentiation characteristics of the land comprehensice carrying capacity. This research showed that, between the different evaluation level, background earring capacity index between counties is discrete on numerical distribution, while the spatial distribution was also disperse. Potential carring capacity index had largest gap between counties, but had a tendency of agglomeration in the spatial distribution. Status carrying capacity index values between counties were similar, but the spatial distribution showed the characteristic of discrete. The correlation coefficient analysis showed that the correlation coefficient between bacground carrying capacity index and land comprehensive bearing index is 0.969. It meant that the natural ecological conditions had the largest impact on land comprehensive carrying capacity in county level. The status carrying capacity index index and the potential carrying capacity index had a positive correlation, while the correlation coefficient is 0.438. It indicated that the higher level social and economic development, the more the favorable conditions to provide for the scientific and technological progressing, environmental governancing, and management mode transforming.From the view of spatial differentiation of carrying capacity index in different land use function, the gap between different counties is relatively small in terms of agricultural production function, while the disparity in economic development level between different counties is the largest and the space differentiation characteristics of ecological conservation function is obvious. The centres of gravity of land use function were different in Hubei Province. The centres of gravity of ecological conservation function had bias to the western region of Hubei Province, while the agricultural production function in the south of Hubei Province, the social and economic development function in the eastern region of Hubei Province. In addition to highly positive correlation between economic development carrying capacity index and social security carrying capacity index, it showed a negative and low correlation between the different function carrying capacity indices, which confirmed the mutual restriction relationship between different land use function.(6) The influence factors of the space differentiation in land comprehensive carrying capacityGeographic detector model was adapted to analysis the factors affecting the spatial differentiation of land comprehensive carrying capacity in Hubei Province. The study found that the space distribution features of resources and environment background conditions had the greatest impact on the spatial differentiation of the land comprehensive carrying capacity. For example, the indictors of the available land resources per capita and the available water resources per capita had influence of 35.25% and 25.88% respectively. The influences of the economic development indexes generally were higher. Related to the agricultural production indexes, the economic development indexes could have greater influence on space distribution pattern of the land comprehensive carrying capacity. The indictor of grain supply and demand forces had smaller effects, which reflected that the land comprehensive carrying capacity is no longer limited to the food supply capacity. Natural limiting factors, such as elevation, gradient index had smaller effects than environmental capacity capacity index on the spatial differentiation of land comprehensive carrying capacity, which suggested that, reforming the natural geographical conditions is not the best way to improve land comprehensive carrying capacity, and we should improve the efficiency of resource utilization, reducing emissions and other measuments.(7) Land development spatial optimization scheme in Hubei ProvinceBased on the analysis of land use spatial pattern evolution in hubei province, it was thought that spatial optimization goal of land development for a period of time in the future in hubei province is as follows:confirm the dominant function of different counties in land use and development direction, improve the efficiency of the county land resources spatial configuration, and play the role of land comprehensive carrying capacity in monitoring and warning to promote regional sustainable development. Use the method of three-dimensional rubik’s cube figure to carry out the functional zoning of land use in Hubei Province. So, the whole province was divided into agricultural production areas, economic development areas, ecological conservation areas and balanced development areas. This partition results were consistent with the main function zoning in Hubei Province. Use the method of system clustering to carry out the development of land use and development zoning. And then the Hubei Province was divided into the key development areas, the undertaking development areas and the limited development area. According to the two-dimensional correlation matrix of "function-development" partition of land use, the comprehensive land use zoning was carried out. The space differentiation characteristics of the land comprehensive carrying capacity and relevant achievements of master plannings were used to the comprehensive land use zoning adjustment. Eventually the Hubei Province was divided into the main agricultural production zone, the key economic development zone, the ecological limited development zone, comprehensive development zone and the ecological conservation zone.(8) Policy guarantee measures for land development spatial optimizationFinally, this rearch puts forward the development direction of space partition and land use. And it presents countermeasures and measures to secure the implementation of land development spatial optimization from the aspect of regional differentiation policy formulation, public resource allocation mechanism building, and assess system building of political achievement in county level.
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