The Study Of Enterprise Risk Evaluation And Avoidance Based On Complexity Theory

In the development situation of economic globalization, the enterprise survivalenvironment exist complex risk, the enterprise pay attention to risk managementwhich has become a indispensable important component in modern enterprisemanagement system particularly since global financial crisis in2008. Riskmanagement is composed of risk identification, risk assessment and risk prevention.Establish scientific index system and model method of evaluation, perfect riskprevention measures are all important for risk management. In our country,state-owned enterprises control the national economy, so innovation and developmentof risk management in state-owned enterprises is closely related to the future anddestiny of Chinese enterprises. It is an important and urgent problem to identify,assess and prevent risk in state-owned enterprises.Based on consulting and analysis with the previous research, we divided materialrisk into competitive risk, investment risk and human resource risk. Along the lines,the author study evaluation method and risk prevention measures for these three kindsof risk. In the risk assessment, this research uses Game Analysis, DEA, ClusterAnalysis, Faces Analysis, TOPSIS and Multi-objective evaluation method which isbased on AHP and BP neural network to evaluate the size of risk. In risk prevention,this study puts forward some measures and advice as a supplement.At the same time, in order to effectively manage the risk of state-ownedenterprises, this study analyzed some abnormal risks in these three kinds of risk, and itputs forward the solutions. we can use Cooperative Game Theory to coordinateresources distribution between various subsidiaries; External multidimensional gamethought can adjust the competition strategy of each subsidiary, so as to achieve theoptimal allocation of resources, make enterprise group to maximize profits. In humanresource risk management, this study uses Game Analysis to research principal-agentrisk which exist in the state-owned enterprise, and give some suggestions forpreventing this kind of risk. Based on the research object of SDLH group, this studytake the form of questionnaire to analyze current situation of principal–agent risk,incentive mechanism and selection in SDLH group, and finally some suggestions aregiven. From the view of theoretical sense, these methods can enrich and perfect the riskmanagement theory system. From the realistic perspective, both from domesticeconomic stable development and sustainable growth, and from state-ownedenterprise development, these research has application value on risk assessment andprevention.