| So far, after many years of development, investment multiplier theory formed two branches of total investment multiplier and structural investment multiplier according to different studying objects, and formed two types of static and dynamic investment multipliers according to different analysis methods. At present, foreign scholars mainly focused their research on using dynamic multiplier to test the effectiveness of investment and fiscal policy. Domestic scholars mainly focused on static multiplier, including theoretically improving the calculation method and practically calculating Keynesian investment multiplier from two departments to four departments, where for the structural investment multiplier research investment multiplier was enhanced with the capabilities expanded from aggregate analysis to industrial structure analysis by using input-output technique as the analytical tool which is an important development to the theory.However, both total investment multiplier and structural investment multiplier can only show the pulling capacity to GDP or total industry output, and can not reflect the ecological price paid for economic growth. The investment behaviors simply guided by high investment multiplier are likely to deviate from the path of ecological sustainable development. Although academia carried out a large number of studies on environment-economic accounting in the framework of SEEA published by United Nations, but the green adjustment to investment multiplier theory was rarely mentioned. This thesis tries to transform investment multiplier into investment green multiplier by deducting environmental costs caused by investment from the process of investment multiplier, based on the investigation of domestic and foreign research results on investment multiplier and environmental effects of investments. This thesis tries to take theoretical research and empirical analysis on total and structural investment green multiplier to multidimensionally show the investment effect to national green economy. The main contents of this thesis are as follows.First, given the four-department Keynesian investment multiplier not only lacks environment-economic analysis capability but also ignores the derived investment due to the derived savings in the multiplier transfer process, the thesis first deduces the long-term and medium-term investment multiplier models which enrich the investment multiplier transfer process, and then proposes the long-term and medium-term investment green multiplier models through deducting the environmental costs caused by investment. Theoretically the difference between investment green multiplier and investment multiplier can show the weakening effect to investment multiplier due to environmental costs; their values in different regions can demonstrate the investment’s regional characteristics of economic pull capacity and ecological environment effects; their changing trends in one region can show the effects of investment structure adjustment. Joint observation of the two multipliers’ difference and investment green multiplier’s changing trend is helpful to investment decision-makers to make rational trade-offs between economic growth and environmental costs on the premise of sustainable development.Second, in order to verify the effectiveness of the proposed long-term investment green multiplier model and to examine the weakening degree to China’s long-term investment multiplier due to environmental costs, the thesis carries out the empirical analysis of China’s long-term investment green multiplier. Using the data of expenditure-based GDP, disposable income of residents, final consumption of residents, total tax revenue, imports, and others of China’s31provinces from2001to2010, the thesis obtains the consumption function, the tax function, the import function, and the investment environmental cost function using panel data model, calculates out the data like the marginal propensity to consume, the marginal propensity of taxes, the marginal propensity to import, and the coefficient of investment environmental cost, and based on them calculates the long-term investment multiplier and the long-term investment green multiplier. The results show that the latter decreases by23.9%relative to the former, indicating that China’s long-term investment multiplier is significantly weakened by environmental costs.Third, one of the important objectives that government increases investment is to quickly promote economic growth and employment in the context of sustainable development. But the features of the long-term investment green multiplier, such as that the relatively long multiplying process is not applicable to medium-and short-term analysis, the implicit assumption that marginal consumption propensity and other parameters are always the same limits the accuracy of multiplier, and the long-term multiplier is not conducive to timely observe the effects of investment structure adjustment, makes it difficult to accurately describe the investment effect in a given period. To solve these problems, on the basis of the long-term investment multiplier model and the long-term investment green multiplier model, this thesis proposes the medium-term investment multiplier model and the medium-term investment green multiplier model using dynamic parameters in the limited numbers of cycles of5years according to Chinese government’s five-year planning. Through examining the performance of the two multipliers in different regions the regional characteristics of medium-term investment effects can be shown, and through their changing trends in one region the effects of investment structure adjustment can be shown. This thesis only calculates the medium-term investment multiplier and the medium-term investment green multiplier of China’s30provinces in the2005-2009 period due to the limited green GDP data materials. The results show that the weakening effect to the medium-term investment multiplier due to environmental costs decreases from the western regions to the eastern regions, which indicates that the investments in the western regions have poor environment-friendliness.Fourth, the two-stage input-output model currently is a powerful tool for studying structural investment multiplier, but the model does not have the capability of environment-economic analysis, and so is not suitable to structural investment green multiplier research. This thesis designs a environment-economic two-stage input-output model to solve this problem. The article first uses three methods to establish the environment-economic two-stage input-output table, and makes the balances of table rows and columns as industrial green final output and industrial green initial investment. Further, by the calculation and analysis of input-output coefficients like direct consumption coefficient, full consumption coefficient, and environmental consumption coefficient, the complex environment-economic input-output relationship between different departments is shown in detail.Fifth, in the framework of the environment-economic two-stage input-output model, this thesis proposes the industry-structural investment green multiplier model, and then makes China2007environment-economic two-stage input-output table based on China2007input-output table. The calculation results of structural investment multiplier and structural investment green multiplier of China’s42industries show that almost all industries’ investment multipliers are more or less weakened by environmental costs, where the energy and resource related industries are most severe. This not only gives warnings for our nation’s adjustment to industry investment structure but also provides industry references to explain the causes of regional investment green multiplier.In summary, comprehensively examining long-term and medium-term investment green multipliers and industry-structural green multiplier is conducive to enhance the reality describing capability of investment multiplier theory and to observe the investment effect to national green economy. Accounting the investment green multipliers of a country’s different regions and different industries can provide a visible reference for adjusting investing structure and promoting sustainable development.
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