The Analysis Of Investment Multiplier Effect Of Urban Rail Transit In China

China is in the special period of rapid development of urban rail transit construction, to2020, the country’s urban rail transit will have grown to40.A large number of urban rail transit projects are being planned or constructed. The urban rail transit as a large urban infrastructure projects, accommodating a huge capital investment and employment. If we can comprehensively and accurately grasp the construction of urban rail transit investment multiplier effect in the specific mechanism and the multiplier effect on the size and trends can predict its contribution to national economic development and influence on national economic policies and adjusting certain reference significance.This paper regards the urban rail transit investment multiplier effect as the research object, based on an accurate grasp of the investment multiplier theory and input-output analysis method, through the analysis of the urban rail transit industry association, economic and investment multiplier factors, systematically expounded the urban rail transit investment multiplier mechanism of action. Finally, use input-output analysis methods, combined1997,2002,2005,2007and2010national input-output table data, estimate the recent years of urban rail transit industry’s output multiplier and the investment multiplier. The results show: the Simple Output Multipliers stable at2.00-2.26with an average of2.149192, the Simple Investment Multiplier stable at1.21-1.35with an average of1.286571, and both showed a gradual increasing trend; while the Cumulative Output Multipliers at4.42-4.85, average4.572448, the Cumulative Investment Multiplier at2.64-2.91, with an average2.737230, but both have a certain value fluctuations. Finally, I briefly analyzed the reason of the Simple Multiplier and the Cumulative Multiplier of the trends.