| Investment multiplier theory created by Keynes is a government investment macro-control theory which rescued the world economic crisis broke in 1930s. Global financial crisis in 2008 initiated by subprime loans crisis in America, in 2007 reminds us of the importance of the investment multiplier theory. In order to ease the effect of the financial crisis and stimulate economic growth, several countries launched a series of rescue plan. United states made a financial rescue plan with 700 billion US$ and a new economic stimulus plan with 780 billion US$. In fact, market mechanism relied on by huge bailout plan is just the multiplier theory, literally speaking, it is the government investment multiplier theory. Rising of government investment promotes the nongovernment investment, and comes to the multiplier effect of rise of income.From the existent documents, investment multiplier theory made a progress from Keynesian multiplier to IO multiplier to SAM multiplier. Domestic and foreign scholars'researches paid much attention to the application of the theory, achievements are the following aspects:1. spend much energy on research of government investment effect, for example, employment effects and income effect, and carrying out empirical test, but scholars seldom study the government transmission mechanism.2. Only calculating China government's investment multiplier effect with the static investment multiplier theory of Keynes and no research on the dynamic investment multiplier effect, to some extent, it is only an extension of static investment multiplier theory.3. Research on all kinds of computational method, while did few research on influencing elements of multiplier.This article builds a government transmission mechanism theoretical framework, divides the whole government transmission mechanism, from investment to income, into four sections. For influencing elements, paper regards the investment as implicit function further, considers the money market effect in multiplier, expands the three influencing elements to five ones, marginal orientation of investment and marginal demand-for-money added. Based on the analysis of general influencing elements of multiplier and transmission mechanism, thesis makes a further analysis on the special influencing elements and features of transmission mechanism in China, and variation of multiplier influencing elements and transmission mechanism under conditions of financial crisis. On this bases, thesis puts on a theoretic assumption and makes an empirical test for it, and calculates the size of China investment multiplier including five influencing elements before and after the financial crisis with VAR. Empirical test of transmission mechanism, especially the variables influenced the transmission mechanism, validates the effects of the middle variables, based on this analysis, paper makes a point how government choose the control mechanism to achieve the aim of smooth and ultimate transmission of investment multiplier. At last, this thesis points out the direction of further research on multiplier, and provides theoretical and empirical supports to government investment transmission mechanism research and government investment multiplier effect assessment.This paper takes "Influencing Elements of Investment Multiplier and Government Investment Transmission Mechanism" as theme and makes a theoretical and empirical analysis of China investment multiplier before and after the financial crisis with the logical positivism. As the research methods, thesis insists on analyzing form static to dynamic, macro to micro, whole to part and to whole, general to the particular, combination of short term and long term, longitudinal and lateral analysis, volume and structure.Thesis contains eight chapters.Chapter 1 Introduction, explains the research background and value of China investment multiplier influencing elements and transmission mechanism after financial crisis, then confirms the research purpose and methods, subsequently, raises the innovation, last, gives a brief introduction of contents and basic research framework.Chapter 2 literature review and evaluation of development and new direction of investment multiplier theory.Chapter 3 Analyzing the investment multiplier influencing elements theoretically. Chapter 4 Quantitative analysis of investment multiplier influencing elements.Chapter 5 Analyzing the government investment transmission mechanism theoretically.Chapter 6 Quantitative analysis of government investment transmission mechanism, builds three linear models separately for three transmission sectors, that are from government investment to nongovernment investment, form investment to employment, from employment to income.Chapter 7 Policy recommendations, summary and application to theoretical and empirical analysis. Based on the theoretical and empirical analysis in Chapter 3. Chapter 4. Chapter 5. Chapter 6, thesis points out how to choose the government control mechanism which can expand the investment multiplier effect and achieve the ultimate transmission of investment multiplier.Chapter 8 ConclusionThesis contains four probable innovations:1. Among the investment multiplier influencing elements, this thesis takes investment as implicit function, considers the money market effects to multiplier, and derives new static investment multiplier formula including five influencing elements, on this bases, analyzes the influence mechanism of five influencing elements. Thesis expands there influencing elements of investment multiplier to five ones, that are marginal propensity to consume, marginal propensity to invest, marginal tax rate, marginal propensity to import and marginal rate of money demand, of which marginal propensity to invest and marginal rate of money demand come to birth in this thesis.2. Thesis builds a government transmission mechanism theoretical framework, divides the whole government transmission mechanism into four sectors, that are from government investment to nongovernment investment, form investment to employment, from employment to income, from income to expense, and analyzes it form transmission channel, the main impact of behavior on the transmission mechanism and intermediate variables on the transmission mechanism three angles, this innovation enriches and improves Keynesian theory of investment multiplier and, so that the government investment transmission mechanism is more clear.3. Based on the empirical method, using dynamic multiplier which proposed in 1980s, namely the VAR model to calculate China investment multiplier. Most China scholars are good at static investment multiplier to calculate China investment multiplier, no one use the dynamic one.4. Empirical analysis of transmission mechanism, especially the variables influenced the transmission mechanism, validates the effects of the middle variables, based on this analysis, paper makes a point how government choose the control mechanism to achieve the aim of smooth and ultimate transmission of investment multiplier.
|
PDF Full Text Request