Study On Decision Optimization Of Pavement Maintenance Management System For Expressway

Pavement Management System (PMS) is a kind of scientific management mode and a tool for assistant decision. It is distinct from the traditional decision mode that depends on human experience. So PMS is of benefit to the systematism, scientificity and modernization of the pavement management decision, and good for making best use of the pavement resource. Pavement Maintenance Management System (PMMS) is one of the subsystems of PMS. The key of the PMMS is to make good use of maintenance funds in order to keep pavement stay on the best service level and gain best economic benefits. With the development of expressway construction and the gradual formation of expressway network in China, the problems about the maintenance of expressway have become more and more important and prominent. There is lack of uniform standard and criterion of expressway maintenance in China, and the expressway maintenance modes is different in different region. So the study in the thesis is of great significance to the sustainable development of expressway and regional economy. And it is of practical significance to the management decision-making work in maintenance management department and express management department.According to the present situation of maintenance management of China expressway, the maintenance management decision problems of network-level expressway in province region are regarded as the study objects. Based on the evaluation and prediction of pavement performance, the main frame of decision optimization of PMMS for network-level expressway is proposed. The optimization model of pavement maintenance fund allocation is established, and the arithmetic of the model is discussed. According to the present situation of expressway maintenance management in Sichuan province, the decision-making of PMMS for network-level expressway is made as a case applying the methods and models raised in the thesis.Two key problems are studied in the thesis. One is the evaluation and* prediction of pavement performance; the other is the optimization decision of pavement maintenance.Based on the attribute evaluation and objective weight, a kind of fuzzy compressive evaluation method that is suitable for the performance evaluation of China expressway is proposed in the thesis. The idea and method of attribute evaluation are used to calculate the estimation of the attribute in the thesis. The calculation method based on cosinus vector included angle is used in the fuzzy compressive evaluation method. The principle of determination and modification of weight is discussed in detail. Based on the combination of grey predict model and Markov probability prediction model, a kind of prediction model is proposed to predict the pavement maintenance performance. And a kind of simple arithmetic of transition probability matrix is raised.The key content of the thesis is the decision optimization of PMMS for network-level expressway. The goal of the decision optimization is to establish the plan of the pavement maintenance and the scheme of the fund allocation. Firstly the main frame of study on decision optimization of PMMS for network-level expressway is proposed according to the application situation of the decision optimization methods in the field. Secondly the requirement and measure of PMM are analyzed. The concepts of combination state and the transition probability of the combination state of pavement performance are defined. The calculation method of transition probability of the combination state is studied. Then the method of minimizing the weighted sum of deviation square that is kind of group ranking method in multi-object decision-making is used in the ranking of PMM. The ranking of the pavement maintenance for the different routes in the network is discussed. Finally the pavement maintenance fond allocation of network-level expressway is studied emphatically. Combination of the ideas of dynamic planning and Markov decision planning, the Markov Decision Planning (MDP) Model for the optimization of pavement maintenance fund allocation is established. The basic idea of establishing the model is elaborated. The development of pavement performance is regarded as a...