Study On The Growth And Influencing Factors Of China-kazakhstan Agricultural Trade

In the past 20 years,under the Shanghai Cooperation Organization,the “Belt and Road” initiative and other agricultural trade cooperation mechanisms,the bilateral agricultural trade between China and Kazakhstan has increased rapidly and gained good momentum.However,due to the high concentration of agricultural trade and the instability of agricultural production,the bilateral agricultural trade between China and Kazakhstan also has some problems,such as uneven development of agricultural import and export trade and the actual trade growth rate is lower than expected.Under the new situation that China and Kazakhstan have established a permanent comprehensive strategic partnership and the construction of “Belt and Road” has entered the stage of high-quality development,the agricultural trade cooperation between China and Kazakhstan is facing new historical opportunities and challenges.Based on the agricultural trade data of China and Kazakhstan in Trade Map database and UN Comtrade database from 2001 to 2019,this paper first analyzes the development status and trade structure of China-Kazakhstan agricultural trade;Secondly,by calculating the revealed competitive advantage index,trade competitiveness index,export similarity index,trade integration index,Gruber-Lloyd intraindustry trade index and Brulhart intra-industry trade index,this paper analyzes the competitive and complementary characteristics of China-Kazakhstan agricultural trade,and uses the constant market share model to decompose the total growth of China-Kazakhstan bilateral agricultural trade and the growth drivers of sub category agricultural products;Finally,using Granger causality test and impulse response function and other empirical methods,this paper deeply explores the main factors affecting the bilateral agricultural trade between China and Kazakhstan.Relevant research provides theoretical basis and practical enlightenment for further promoting China-Kazakhstan agricultural trade cooperation.The main conclusions are as follows:First,China and Kazakhstan have increasingly close trade ties in agricultural products.The two countries have strong complementarities in animal and plant raw materials,fruits and vegetables,sugars,Cereals,Oils and fats and textile fibers;The export similarity of agricultural products between China and Kazakhstan is low,and the trade competition is weak;inter-industry trade is the main source for the improvement of agricultural trade between China and Kazakhstan.At the same time,the role of intraindustry trade is also strengthening.Second,since the “the Belt and Road” initiative was put forward,the main driving factor for the growth of China’s agricultural exports to Kazakhstan has changed from the effect caused by market demand to the effect of price competitiveness.The improvement of the infrastructure of the two countries has greatly reduced the cost of China’s agricultural exports to Kazakhstan,and further strengthened the competitive advantage of China’s agricultural products in the Kazakhstan market.Third,among the main factors affecting China-Kazakhstan agricultural trade,Kazakhstan’s per capita GDP,population size and China’s population size have significant positive effects,while China’s per capita GDP,the distance between the two countries and the exchange rate have significant negative effects.At present,the impact of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the “the Belt and Road”initiative on the trade potential of China-Kazakhstan agricultural products still needs to be improved.Based on the above research conclusions,the following policy recommendations are put forward:First,actively build a long-term cooperation mechanism for bilateral agricultural trade and strengthen bilateral agricultural trade cooperation,deepen China-Kazakhstan agricultural cooperation under the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the “Belt and Road” initiative,and promote the development of agricultural trade between China and Kazakhstan;Second,build an information sharing and exchange platform for agricultural trade commodities to promote information connectivity between China and Kazakhstan;Third,further expand and improve the construction of transportation infrastructure and reduce the trade prices of agricultural products,improve the agricultural trade facilitation level of China-Kazakhstan,and enhance the trade competitiveness of China’s agricultural products.