| China has become the largest trading country for wood forest products in the world.The large fluctuation of wood forest products imports and exports will have a negative impact on the domestic and international forest products markets and the development of the forest industry.It is very important to study the fluctuation characteristics and influencing factors of import and export of wood forest products for strengthening the trade and management of forest products.In this paper,196 months of trade data from January 2005 to April 2021 are selected.Based on the analysis of the development status of China’s import and export of wood forest products,X13 seasonal adjustment and HP filtering method are used to analyze the characteristics of China’s wood forest products import and export trade fluctuations.Construction of an ARDL model to analyze the factors affecting import and export trade fluctuations of Chinese wood forest products from the supply and demand perspectives.Constructing a CMS model to decompose the component effects of import and export trade fluctuations of Chinese wood forest products.Propose policy recommendations to smooth out the fluctuations.The results show that the import and export trade of Chinese wood forest products fluctuates significantly,with the import trade volume showing the characteristics of "high in spring and low in autumn and winter" and the export trade volume showing the characteristics of "high in spring and summer and low in winter".The expansion ability of China’s wood forest products import trade is weakened,but the expansion ability of export trade is enhanced.The fluctuation of investment in real estate development and construction projects,exchange rates,lumber production and log import price have significant impacts on the fluctuation of China’s wood forest products import trade in the short and long term,fluctuations in the total reserves of exporting countries,exchange rates,timber production and log export prices have significant impacts on export trade fluctuation in the short and long term.The most important factor affecting both import fluctuations and export fluctuations of Chinese wood forest products is the competitiveness effect.The import market is constantly optimizing and the international competitiveness is continuously increasing,while the international competitiveness of export is continuously decreasing.Accordingly,several suggestions are proposed for inspiration such as establishing an early warning system for monitoring import and export trade of forest products and a hedging mechanism for exchange rate fluctuations of enterprises,improving forest quality and distribution of China’s woody forest products import and export markets. |
