Research On The Impact Of Trade Facilitation On Bilateral Trade Between China And Countries Along The "Belt And Road"

The year 2023 is the first year for China to fully implement the spirit of the 20 th CPC National Congress,the year for the 14 th Five-Year Plan to connect the past and the future,and the 10 th anniversary of the proposal of jointly building the "Belt and Road".From "freehand brushwork" to "fine brushwork",since the "Belt and Road" initiative was put forward,people of all countries have jointly drawn a magnificent picture of common destiny,which makes China’s trade with countries along the "Belt and Road" increasingly close.With the advent of the "post tariff" era,trade facilitation measures have become a key factor restricting international trade cooperation.The "Unimpeded Trade",the heart of the "Belt and Road",which echoes the view of trade facilitation.Based on this,it is of great significance to explore the relationship between trade facilitation and bilateral trade.This thesis first outlines the current situation of trade development between China and the countries along the "Belt and Road".By selecting five first level indicators and20 second level indicators,we use the principal component analysis method to measure the level of trade facilitation between China and 46 countries along the "Belt and Road" from 2008 to 2019.On this basis,we use the expanded trade gravity model to empirically analyze the impact of trade facilitation on bilateral trade between China and countries along the "Belt and Road".Secondly,this thesis conducts stability and endogenous tests on empirical regression.In addition,this thesis analyzes the regional differences of different income,different Silk Road and different economic corridors from the perspective of heterogeneity.Then this thesis calculates the bilateral trade costs between China and countries along the "Belt and Road" based on the Novy’s model,and reveals the transmission mechanism of trade facilitation on bilateral trade from the perspective of trade costs.In addition,this thesis analyzes the differentiation of trade facilitation on the characteristics of trade flows in different economic regions based on the threshold model.Finally,according to the research conclusions,this thesis provides policy recommendations for the future development of the "Belt and Road".The findings of this study are as follows:(1)From the overall level,the trade facilitation level of countries along the "Belt and Road" is generally low.From the perspective of temporal characteristics,the trade facilitation level of China and countries along the "Belt and Road" from 2008 to 2019 shows a broken line trend,but the overall trend of gradual improvement remains unchanged.From the perspective of regional characteristics,the trade facilitation level of countries in East Asia,South Asia and Central Asia is generally backward;The trade facilitation of the CIS countries is at a lower middle level;The level of trade facilitation in West Asia is the highest,while the level gap between countries in Central and Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia is large.(2)Trade facilitation has greatly promoted the development of bilateral trade between China and countries along the "Belt and Road".After considering dynamic effects,substitution variables and time dimensions,the results are still stable.(3)Heterogeneity analysis shows that trade facilitation has a significantly stronger promoting effect on middle and high income countries;The promotion role of the countries along the "21st Century Maritime Silk Road" is stronger than that of the countries along the "Silk Road Economic Belt";The promotion effect on the economic corridors of Bangladesh,China,India and Myanmar,China and Pakistan and ChinaChina Peninsula is more obvious than that of other economic corridors.(4)The mechanism test analysis found that trade facilitation promotes the development of bilateral trade by reducing trade costs.After replacing the parameters in the trade cost calculation formula,the results are still stable.(5)The threshold model found that there is a threshold value of 0.9200 with trade cost as a single threshold.Empirical regression found that the promotion effect of trade facilitation on the bilateral trade of countries along the line has significant differences in different economic regions.The positive impact of trade facilitation on the bilateral trade volume of countries above the threshold value of trade cost is stronger than that of countries below the threshold value.