An Empirical Study On The Impact Of House And Land Price Fluctuations On Provincial Financial Stability In China

With the continuous expansion of the scale of urbanization,the rapid development of urban infrastructure has brought huge economic and social changes,and the connection between provinces has also been gradually strengthened.The strengthening of this spatial connection has improved the correlation between housing prices and financial stability between provinces.At the same time,the huge difference in land prices between different uses of construction land and different regions has also brought certain direct and spatial differences to financial stability.However,in the process of economic and financial networking and mutual penetration,the spread speed of financial risks and the harm after the outbreak are also increasing.Once the original risk prevention and control system is broken,it will cause the concentrated release of cross-provincial risks,which will greatly affect the macro-financial stability.This puts forward higher requirements for local governments to establish a long-term provincial financial supervision system and effectively improve the ability to maintain financial stability,It also strengthens the new demand for research on financial risk transmission mechanism and risk prevention and control capability between different provinces.According to the above logical thinking,this thesis will be carried out in the framework of theoretical analysis,empirical analysis and conclusion summary.The theoretical analysis part includes the introduction and the literature review on the relationship between house price,land price fluctuation and provincial financial stability,as well as the theoretical analysis of the impact of house price and land price fluctuation on provincial financial stability,the assumptions proposed according to the theoretical analysis,and the construction and analysis of the provincial financial stability index.The empirical analysis part includes using the quarterly data of 2015-2020 to analyze the direct impact of house price and land price fluctuations on provincial financial stability,the establishment of spatial matrix and the spatial impact of house price and land price fluctuations on provincial financial stability.This part demonstrates the impact of house price and land price fluctuations on provincial financial stability from the perspective of endogenous and spatial relations.The conclusion part is the conclusion and policy recommendations,aiming to summarize the research conclusions of this thesis and put forward corresponding policy recommendations based on the research conclusions.The research results show that:(1)The fluctuation of house price and land price has an undeniable impact on the provincial financial stability,and the impact of the land price for real estate use on the provincial financial stability is not only affected by the two-way supply and demand of house price,but also inseparable from the basic economic and social factors;(2)There are spatial heterogeneity differences and spatial contagion between the financial stability of neighboring provinces.Therefore,the financial risks between different regions in China are not independent of each other,but have the characteristics of mutual transmission under different spatial relations;(3)The fluctuation of house price and land price has both symmetric and asymmetric effects on the provincial financial stability.Under the influence of symmetry,the financial stability between provinces is complementary.Under the influence of asymmetry,the financial stability between provinces is competitive.The innovation of this thesis lies in the innovative establishment of a provincial financial stability index system,and the use of this provincial financial stability index system combined with a variety of spatial relationship matrices to jointly study the direct and spatial impact of house and land price fluctuations on provincial finance.The contribution of this thesis is to examine the spatial impact of house price and land price on the provincial financial stability from a spatial perspective,and to find the difference between the mutual influence of the provincial financial stability under the symmetric and asymmetric influence.